{"id":4917,"date":"2026-07-24T10:55:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T10:55:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/?p=4917"},"modified":"2026-07-24T10:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T10:58:21","slug":"arhitektura-energetske-suverenosti-moze-li-hrvatska-pretvoriti-globalne-rizike-u-povijesnu-priliku-globalna-jednadzba-od-populacijske-bombe-do-energetskog-standarda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/2026\/07\/24\/arhitektura-energetske-suverenosti-moze-li-hrvatska-pretvoriti-globalne-rizike-u-povijesnu-priliku-globalna-jednadzba-od-populacijske-bombe-do-energetskog-standarda\/","title":{"rendered":"Arhitektura energetske suverenosti: Mo\u017ee li Hrvatska pretvoriti globalne rizike u povijesnu priliku? Globalna jednad\u017eba: Od populacijske bombe do energetskog standarda"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4917\" class=\"elementor elementor-4917\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d7cdc7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d7cdc7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3102302c\" data-id=\"3102302c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5df7a2cc elementor-tabs-view-horizontal elementor-widget elementor-widget-tabs\" data-id=\"5df7a2cc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"tabs.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-tabs\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-tabs-wrapper\" role=\"tablist\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1571\" class=\"elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-desktop-title\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1571\" aria-expanded=\"false\">Hrvatski<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1572\" class=\"elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-desktop-title\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1572\" aria-expanded=\"false\">English<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-tabs-content-wrapper\" role=\"tablist\" aria-orientation=\"vertical\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1571\" aria-expanded=\"false\">Hrvatski<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1571\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1571\" tabindex=\"0\" hidden=\"false\"><p>Prof. dr. sc. Vladimir \u010cavrak<br \/>Ekonomski fakultet Sveu\u010dili\u0161ta u Zagrebu<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>U svijetu de globalizacije, prekinutih lanaca opskrbe i geopoliti\u010dke fragmentacije, energetska samodostatnost vi\u0161e nije ekolo\u0161ko ili ekonomsko pitanje \u2013 ona je postala pitanje nacionalne sigurnosti i suvereniteta. Kada se globalna pravila igre uru\u0161avaju, dr\u017eave koje ovise o tu\u0111oj energiji postaju geopoliti\u010dki ranjive i podlo\u017ene ucjenama. Ova konstatacija izravno proizlazi iz nu\u017enosti rje\u0161avanja glavne jednad\u017ebe opstanka suvremene civilizacije: kako pomiriti eksponencijalne potrebe \u010dovje\u010danstva s fizi\u010dkim ograni\u010denjima planeta Zemlje.<\/p><p>Dugo se strahovalo od &#8220;populacijske bombe&#8221; i beskona\u010dnog rasta stanovni\u0161tva, no moderni demografski modeli pokazuju da se globalni rast usporava. O\u010dekuje se da \u0107e svjetska populacija dosegnuti vrhunac u drugoj polovici 21. stolje\u0107a (oko 10,3 milijardi ljudi), nakon \u010dega \u0107e po\u010deti padati. Me\u0111utim, ovdje le\u017ei klju\u010dna kvaka ekonomike energije: energetski pritisak ne dolazi prvenstveno od broja ljudi, ve\u0107 od rasta njihovog \u017eivotnog standarda. Stvarni izazov nije samo to \u0161to \u0107e na Zemlji biti vi\u0161e stanovnika, ve\u0107 \u0161to \u0107e milijarde ljudi u zemljama u razvoju opravdano \u017eeljeti pre\u0107i iz energetskog siroma\u0161tva u suvremeni na\u010din \u017eivota, koji podrazumijeva intenzivno kori\u0161tenje klima ure\u0111aja, automobila, napredne tehnologije i stabilne mre\u017ee. Kriza strukture, a ne nedostatak resursa.<\/p><p>Dobra vijest iz perspektive ekonomike energije jest da svijetu ne prijeti fizi\u010dki nestanak energije, ve\u0107 kriza njezine strukture. Konvencionalnih rezervi nafte ima dovoljno za idu\u0107ih nekoliko desetlje\u0107a, a ugljena za nekoliko stolje\u0107a, no njihovo neograni\u010deno izgaranje vodi do klimatskog kolapsa. Dakle, ograni\u010denje nije u tome koliko fosilnih goriva ima u zemlji, ve\u0107 koliko stakleni\u010dkih plinova atmosfera mo\u017ee podnijeti. S druge strane, fizi\u010dki potencijal sun\u010devog zra\u010denja i vjetra na Zemlji tisu\u0107ama je puta ve\u0107i od ukupnih energetskih potreba \u010dovje\u010danstva.<\/p><p>Problem ovdje nije u rezervama, nego u tehnologiji prihvata: skladi\u0161tenju energije u baterije, premo\u0161\u0107ivanju nestalnosti izvora (\u0161to kad ne pu\u0161e vjetar i nema sunca) te golemoj koli\u010dini kriti\u010dnih minerala (litij, bakar, kobalt) potrebnih za izgradnju te infrastrukture. Istovremeno, nuklearna fisija u postoje\u0107im elektranama ima rezerve urana za stotine godina, posebno uz razvoj naprednih reaktora, dok fuzija predstavlja teoretski neograni\u010den izvor, ali je njezina komercijalna primjena jo\u0161 uvijek desetlje\u0107ima daleko.<\/p><p>Budu\u0107nost svijeta stoga nije odre\u0111ena pukim nedostatkom resursa, ve\u0107 brzinom ljudske inovacije i organizacije \u2013 \u0161to je ujedno i sto\u017eerna tema ovogodi\u0161njeg 10. Me\u0111unarodnog energetskog foruma koji \u0107e se odr\u017eati u Zagrebu 13. listopada 2026. Imamo dovoljno sirove energije u prirodnim silama i elementima; pitanje je imamo li dovoljno politi\u010dke volje, kapitala i tehnolo\u0161ke brzine da je pretvorimo u koristan rad prije nego \u0161to demografski i klimatski pritisci postanu nezaustavljivi. Hrvatski paradoks: Manje stanovnika, ve\u0107a potro\u0161nja Kada preslikamo ove globalne koncepte na doma\u0107i teren, klju\u010dna demografska razlika jest ta \u0161to se Hrvatska, za razliku od globalnog trenda, suo\u010dava s padom broja stanovnika i starenjem populacije. Me\u0111utim, potro\u0161nja elektri\u010dne energije u zemlji i dalje raste te je prvi put pre\u0161la prag od 19 TWh.<\/p><p>Taj paradoks \u2013 manje ljudi, a ve\u0107a potra\u017enja \u2013 izravna je posljedica rasta \u017eivotnog standarda, elektrifikacije prometa i grijanja (dizalice topline), ja\u010danja turisti\u010dkog sektora te sve intenzivnijih ljetnih valova vru\u0107ine koji ekstremno optere\u0107uju sustave za hla\u0111enje. Budu\u0107i uspjeh Hrvatske u ovim okolnostima mo\u017ee se promatrati kroz tri scenarija i njihovu manifestaciju na doma\u0107em tr\u017ei\u0161tu: Scenarij 1: Tehnolo\u0161ki optimizam i ubrzana tranzicija Ovaj scenarij karakterizira sve ve\u0107i udio energije sunca i vjetra te povijesno zakonsko otvaranje prema novoj nuklearnoj eri.<\/p><p>Hrvatska ve\u0107 bilje\u017ei izniman skok u zelenoj energiji. Najve\u0107a vijest u tom kontekstu je dono\u0161enje Zakona o razvoju nuklearne energije u civilne svrhe (NN 55\/2026.), koji je stupio na snagu po\u010detkom lipnja. Dr\u017eava se njime slu\u017ebeno pozicionirala prema razvoju malih modularnih reaktora (SMR) kako bi se do 2040. godine osiguralo da barem 30% potreba za strujom dolazi iz nuklearnih izvora, dok se u sustav ve\u0107 integriraju prvi ozbiljniji komercijalni baterijski spremnici za stabilizaciju mre\u017ee. Scenarij 2: Energetski nacionalizam i resursni sukobi.<\/p><p>Za Hrvatsku znatno nepovoljniji razvoj doga\u0111aja o\u010dituje se kroz visoku ranjivost na uvoz i geopoliti\u010dke nestabilnosti. Unato\u010d rekordima u zelenoj proizvodnji, Hrvatska je i dalje strukturno ovisna o uvozu. Kada nastupe su\u0161na razdoblja i padne proizvodnja iz doma\u0107ih hidroelektrana, uvoz struje dramati\u010dno ska\u010de, pokrivaju\u0107i vi\u0161e od 30% potro\u0161nje u ljetnim mjesecima. Financijski gledano, to je ogroman odljev kapitala: samo u tre\u0107em kvartalu slabije hidrolo\u0161ke godine na uvoz struje potro\u0161imo preko 110 milijuna eura \u2013 \u0161to je novac kojim se moglo izgraditi vi\u0161e od 100 MW novih doma\u0107ih vjetroelektrana.<\/p><p>Bez postizanja potpune energetske neovisnosti, Hrvatska ostaje izlo\u017eena cjenovnim \u0161okovima na europskim burzama koje dr\u017eava mora skupo subvencionirati. Scenarij 3: Infrastrukturna uska grla i limiti rasta Ovaj se scenarij manifestira kroz kriti\u010dne probleme s elektroenergetskom mre\u017eom i sporom administracijom, \u0161to je trenutno najve\u0107a operativna ko\u010dnica u zemlji. Iako postoji golem interes investitora za gradnju solarnih i vjetroelektrana (osobito u Dalmaciji i Slavoniji), doma\u0107a prijenosna i distribucijska mre\u017ea (HOPS i HEP) fizi\u010dki ne mo\u017ee podnijeti tako brz priljev nestabilnih izvora energije. Spajanje na mre\u017eu je skupo i dugotrajno, a nedostaje i doma\u0107e radne snage te opreme za brzu modernizaciju trafostanica i dalekovoda.<\/p><p>Hrvatska se ovdje suo\u010dava s jasnim limitom: nije problem proizvesti energiju iz sunca, problem je fizi\u010dki je transportirati i distribuirati kroz \u017eice do gradova i industrije bez da sustav do\u017eivi kolaps. Povijesna prilika ili kroni\u010dna tromost? Na\u0161a zemlja trenutno ple\u0161e izme\u0111u prvog i tre\u0107eg scenarija. S jedne strane imamo izvrsnu viziju s ubrzanjem solara i hrabrim korakom prema modernoj nuklearnoj energiji (SMR), dok nas s druge strane usporavaju troma infrastruktura i visoka ovisnost o uvozu u kriti\u010dnim mjesecima.<\/p><p>Uspjeh na\u0161e energetske ekonomije u potpunosti \u0107e ovisiti o tome koliko brzo \u017eice i baterijski sustavi mogu pratiti ambicije investitora. Gledaju\u0107i kroz tu prizmu, pozicija Hrvatske je izrazito specifi\u010dna: imamo sjajne temelje, ali i opasne Ahilove pete. U svijetu koji se fragmentira, energija je postala oru\u017eje.<\/p><p>Zbog svog geografskog polo\u017eaja, hidropotencijala, sunca i nuklearnog naslje\u0111a, Hrvatska ima povijesnu priliku postati potpuno energetski neovisna, pa \u010dak i izvoznik sigurnosti za susjedne zemlje. Pitanje je samo ho\u0107emo li unutarnjom tromo\u0161\u0107u i sporom birokracijom tu priliku nepovratno propustiti.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-tab-title elementor-tab-mobile-title\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"tab\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1572\" aria-expanded=\"false\">English<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1572\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1572\" tabindex=\"0\" hidden=\"hidden\"><p>Prof. Dr. sc. Vladimir \u010cavrak<br \/>Faculty of Economics, University of Zagreb<\/p><h6>\u00a0<\/h6><h6>Architecture of Energy Sovereignty: Can Croatia Turn Global Risks into a Historic Opportunity? The Global Equation: From a Population Bomb to an Energy Standard<\/h6><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><br \/>In a world of de-globalization, disrupted supply chains, and geopolitical fragmentation, energy self-sufficiency is no longer an ecological or economic issue \u2013 it has become a matter of national security and sovereignty. When the global rules of the game collapse, countries that depend on foreign energy become geopolitically vulnerable and susceptible to blackmail. This statement directly stems from the necessity of solving the main equation of the survival of modern civilization: how to reconcile the exponential needs of humanity with the physical limitations of planet Earth.<\/p><p>There have long been fears of a &#8220;population bomb&#8221; and endless population growth, but modern demographic models show that global growth is slowing down. The world population is expected to peak in the second half of the 21st century (about 10.3 billion people), after which it will begin to decline. However, here lies the key catch of energy economics: energy pressure does not come primarily from the number of people, but from the growth of their standard of living. The real challenge is not just that the Earth will have more inhabitants, but that billions of people in developing countries will justifiably want to move from energy poverty to a modern lifestyle, which involves intensive use of air conditioners, cars, advanced technology and a stable grid. A crisis of structure, not a lack of resources.<\/p><p>The good news from the perspective of energy economics is that the world is not threatened by a physical energy shortage, but by a crisis of its structure. There are enough conventional oil reserves for the next few decades, and coal for several centuries, but their unlimited combustion leads to climate collapse. So the limit is not how many fossil fuels there are in the country, but how many greenhouse gases the atmosphere can tolerate. On the other hand, the physical potential of solar radiation and wind on Earth is thousands of times greater than the total energy needs of humanity.<\/p><p>The problem here is not in reserves, but in the technology of reception: storing energy in batteries, bridging the variability of sources (what happens when there is no wind and no sun) and the huge amount of critical minerals (lithium, copper, cobalt) needed to build this infrastructure. At the same time, nuclear fission in existing power plants has reserves of uranium for hundreds of years, especially with the development of advanced reactors, while fusion represents a theoretically unlimited source, but its commercial application is still decades away.<\/p><p>The future of the world is therefore not determined by a mere lack of resources, but by the speed of human innovation and organization \u2013 which is also the central theme of this year&#8217;s 10th International Energy Forum, which will be held in Zagreb on October 13, 2026. We have enough raw energy in natural forces and elements; the question is whether we have enough political will, capital and technological speed to turn it into useful work before demographic and climate pressures become unstoppable. The Croatian Paradox: Fewer People, More Consumption When we translate these global concepts to the domestic terrain, the key demographic difference is that Croatia, unlike the global trend, is facing a declining population and an aging population. However, electricity consumption in the country continues to grow and has crossed the 19 TWh threshold for the first time.<\/p><p>This paradox \u2013 fewer people and higher demand \u2013 is a direct consequence of rising living standards, electrification of transport and heating (heat pumps), a strengthening of the tourism sector, and increasingly intense summer heat waves that place extreme strain on cooling systems. Croatia\u2019s future success in these circumstances can be viewed through three scenarios and their manifestation on the domestic market: Scenario 1: Technological optimism and accelerated transition This scenario is characterized by an increasing share of solar and wind energy and a historic legal opening towards a new nuclear era.<\/p><p>Croatia is already recording an exceptional leap in green energy. The biggest news in this context is the adoption of the Act on the Development of Nuclear Energy for Civil Purposes (OG 55\/2026.), which entered into force at the beginning of June. The country has officially positioned itself towards the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) in order to ensure that at least 30% of its electricity needs come from nuclear sources by 2040, while the first serious commercial battery storage systems for grid stabilization are already being integrated into the system. Scenario 2: Energy nationalism and resource conflicts.<\/p><p>For Croatia, a significantly less favorable development is manifested in high vulnerability to imports and geopolitical instability. Despite records in green production, Croatia remains structurally dependent on imports. When dry periods occur and production from domestic hydroelectric power plants falls, electricity imports jump dramatically, covering more than 30% of consumption in the summer months. Financially<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hrvatski English Hrvatski Prof. dr. sc. Vladimir \u010cavrakEkonomski fakultet Sveu\u010dili\u0161ta u Zagrebu \u00a0 U svijetu de globalizacije, prekinutih lanaca opskrbe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4184,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energetska-suverenost"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4917"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4921,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4917\/revisions\/4921"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interenef.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}