Prof. dr. sc. Đula Borozan
Ekonomski fakultet u Osijeku, Sveučilište Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku

1.Energetska, prehrambena i vodna sigurnost u suvremenom društvu

U posljednjih nekoliko godina energetska sigurnost, prehrambena sigurnost i dostupnost pitke vode postale su među najvažnijim globalnim razvojnim i sigurnosnim pitanjima. Klimatske promjene, geopolitički sukobi, poremećaji u opskrbnim lancima i rast cijena energenata pokazali su koliko su ta tri područja međusobno povezana i koliko njihova stabilnost izravno utječe na kvalitetu života stanovništva te na ekonomski razvoj država.

Energija je potrebna u gotovo svim fazama prehrambenog lanca – od proizvodnje mineralnih gnojiva, navodnjavanja i rada poljoprivrednih strojeva do prerade, skladištenja, hlađenja i transporta hrane. Time se očituje izravan utjecaj energije na proizvodnju hrane. Neizravni utjecaj očituje se kroz povećanje troškova proizvodnje zbog viših cijena električne energije i goriva, što se u konačnici odražava na rast maloprodajnih cijena hrane. Istodobno, energetski sektor značajno ovisi o vodi. Hidroelektrane koriste vodne resurse za proizvodnju električne energije, dok termoelektrane i nuklearne elektrane zahtijevaju velike količine vode za hlađenje. Poljoprivreda je, s druge strane, najveći potrošač slatke vode u svijetu. Zbog toga odluke donesene u jednom sektoru često imaju posljedice na druga dva.

2.Hrvatska u kontekstu energetske, prehrambene i vodne sigurnosti

Hrvatska raspolaže vrijednim prirodnim resursima, no istodobno je u značajnoj mjeri ovisna o uvozu energije i dijela prehrambenih proizvoda. Ta dvojnost uvelike određuje njezin položaj u području energetske, prehrambene i vodne sigurnosti. Iako se stanje u svakom od tih područja može analizirati primjenom velikog broja pokazatelja, u nastavku su izdvojeni samo neki od važnijih indikatora te tek neka od pitanja povezanih s problematikom nacionalne sigurnosti.

Energetska (ne)sigurnost. Prema posljednjim dostupnim podacima Eurostata (2026a), energetska ovisnost Hrvatske i dalje je visoka. Neto uvoz energije u 2020. godini iznosio je 53,56 %, da bi u 2024. godini porastao na 59,9 % ukupno raspoložive energije, što je nešto iznad prosjeka Europske unije (oko 57 %). Posebno je izražena ovisnost o uvozu prirodnog plina, koja je 2024. dosegnula 69,2 %, dok je ovisnost o uvozu nafte i naftnih prerađevina iznosila čak 91,5 %. Takva struktura povećava osjetljivost hrvatskog gospodarstva na poremećaje na međunarodnim energetskim tržištima te na promjene cijena energenata

Međutim, osjetljivost Hrvatske na promjene cijena energenata nije isključivo posljedica kretanja na svjetskom tržištu, nego i domaćih dugoročnih razvojnih i energetskih politika. Primjerice, privatizacija INA-e i gašenje prerade u Rafineriji Sisak povećali su ovisnost o uvozu nafte i smanjili mogućnost utjecaja na lanac vrijednosti u naftnom sektoru. Ili, primjerice, dugogodišnja usmjerenost prometne infrastrukture na cestovni prijevoz, uz nedovoljna ulaganja u željeznicu, elektrifikaciju i alternativna goriva, dodatno je povećala potražnju za naftnim derivatima i izloženost gospodarstva naftnim šokovima.

Hrvatska istodobno ostvaruje značajan napredak u razvoju obnovljivih izvora energije. Podaci Eurostata (2026b) pokazuju da je njihov udio u bruto konačnoj potrošnji energije povećan s 23,69 % u 2005. godini na 28,5 % u 2025. godini. Iako je i Europska unija u istom razdoblju povećala udio obnovljivih izvora s 10,18 % na 26,2 %, Hrvatska je tijekom cijelog razdoblja zadržala udio iznad europskog prosjeka. To predstavlja važnu razvojnu prednost i doprinosi jačanju energetske sigurnosti te smanjenju emisija stakleničkih plinova.

Međutim, razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije otvara i nova pitanja iz perspektive nacionalne sigurnosti. Iako povećava domaću proizvodnju energije i smanjuje ovisnost o uvozu fosilnih goriva, energetska suverenost ovisi i o vlasništvu nad proizvodnim kapacitetima, upravljanju kritičnom infrastrukturom te kontroli ključnih tehnologija. Budući da dio velikih projekata obnovljivih izvora u Hrvatskoj razvijaju strani investitori, a europsko tržište i dalje uvelike ovisi o uvozu opreme i kritičnih sirovina, dio energetske ovisnosti premješta se s fosilnih goriva na opskrbne lance kritičnih tehnologija i sirovina.

3.Prehrambena (ne)sigurnost. Kada je riječ o prehrambenoj sigurnosti, Hrvatska raspolaže značajnim poljoprivrednim potencijalom, ali njegova iskorištenost nije zadovoljavajuća. Poljoprivreda, šumarstvo i ribarstvo zajedno sudjeluju u stvaranju hrvatskog bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) s približno 3–4 %, pri čemu sama poljoprivreda čini nešto više od 2 % BDP-a, uz blagi trend smanjenja njezina udjela posljednjih godina.

U proizvodnji osnovnih ratarskih kultura, poput pšenice, kukuruza, soje ili uljarica, Hrvatska uglavnom ostvaruje samodostatnost te dio proizvodnje izvozi. Međutim, stanje je znatno nepovoljnije u sektoru stočarstva. Proizvodnja mesa, mlijeka i jaja predstavlja jednu od najslabijih karika hrvatskog prehrambenog sustava. Posebno zabrinjava dugogodišnji pad broja mliječnih farmi i muznih krava, što povećava ovisnost o uvozu mliječnih proizvoda. Sličan obrazac prisutan je i kod voća i povrća.

Tijekom vegetacijske sezone domaća proizvodnja zadovoljava velik dio potreba tržišta, dok se u zimskim mjesecima znatan dio potrošnje podmiruje uvozom. Hrvatska pritom često izvozi poljoprivredne sirovine, a uvozi prehrambene proizvode više dodane vrijednosti, čime se smanjuje konkurentnost domaće prehrambene industrije i povećava ovisnost o međunarodnim tržištima. Podaci Državnog zavoda za statistiku (DZS, 2025) potvrđuju takve navode; primjerice, 2024. godine izvezeno je hrane i živih životinja u vrijednosti od 2.855.652 tisuće EUR, dok je uvezeno robe u vrijednosti od 5.159.241 tisuću EUR, što potvrđuje izražen trgovinski deficit u toj skupini proizvoda. Iz perspektive nacionalne sigurnosti najveći rizik nije samo činjenica da Hrvatska uvozi dio hrane, nego ovisnost o uvozu proizvoda ključnih za svakodnevnu prehranu stanovništva i funkcioniranje prehrambenog sustava. Ako se istodobno dogode poremećaji u opskrbi energijom, transportu, proizvodnji gnojiva i međunarodnoj trgovini, sposobnost države da osigura dovoljne količine hrane može biti ozbiljno narušena.

4.Vodna (ne)sigurnost. Hrvatska se ubraja među države Europske unije najbogatije slatkovodnim resursima. Prema podacima Eurostata (2026c), s 30.586 m³ obnovljivih vodnih resursa po stanovniku zauzima prvo mjesto među državama članicama Europske unije, a istodobno pripada skupini zemalja s najvećim zalihama obnovljivih podzemnih voda. Oko 82 % vode u sustavu javne vodoopskrbe dolazi iz podzemnih izvora, dok u gotovo dvije trećine vodoopskrbnih zona njezina kvaliteta omogućuje distribuciju uz standardnu dezinfekciju, bez potrebe za dodatnom obradom.

Međutim, obilje vodnih resursa ne znači da je njihova sigurnost dugoročno zajamčena. Klimatske promjene povećavaju učestalost sušnih razdoblja, mijenjaju hidrološke režime i stvaraju sve veći pritisak na raspoložive količine vode. Upravljanje izvorima pitke vode pritom postupno prerasta iz komunalnog i ekonomskog pitanja u pitanje nacionalne sigurnosti. Posebnu pozornost zaslužuje sustav koncesija za gospodarsko korištenje strateških izvora pitke vode. Dio stručne javnosti upozorava da koncentracija dugoročnih koncesija nad važnim izvorištima, poput Jamnice, Lipika, Svetog Roka i izvora rijeke Cetine, ograničava nacionalnu vodnu suverenost.

Nadalje, postavlja se pitanje jesu li postojeći regulatorni i nadzorni mehanizmi dovoljno razvijeni da u svim okolnostima osiguraju prvenstvo javnog interesa nad komercijalnim interesima. To pitanje postaje osobito važno u uvjetima klimatskih promjena, povećane potražnje za kvalitetnom pitkom vodom i mogućih budućih poremećaja u njezinoj dostupnosti. Nacionalna sigurnost stoga ne ovisi samo o količini raspoložive vode, nego i o institucionalnoj sposobnosti države da nad tim resursom zadrži učinkovitu regulatornu i upravljačku kontrolu.

5.Energetska, prehrambena i vodna sigurnost kao temelj nacionalne otpornosti

Ova kratka analiza energetske, prehrambene i vodne sigurnosti pokazuje da se Hrvatska nalazi u svojevrsnom paradoksu. S jedne strane, raspolaže značajnim prirodnim resursima – obnovljivim izvorima energije, plodnim poljoprivrednim zemljištem te jednim od najvećih obnovljivih slatkovodnih potencijala u Europskoj uniji. S druge strane, visoka ovisnost o uvozu energije, nedovoljna iskorištenost poljoprivrednih potencijala te izazovi u upravljanju strateškim vodnim resursima upućuju na postojanje strukturnih ranjivosti koje mogu ograničiti otpornost države u kriznim okolnostima.

Iz perspektive nacionalne sigurnosti ključni izazov nije samo osigurati dostatne količine energije, hrane i vode, nego zadržati sposobnost države da njima učinkovito upravlja u uvjetima poremećaja i kriza. To podrazumijeva, između ostalog, smanjenje prekomjerne uvozne ovisnosti, diversifikaciju izvora opskrbe, razvoj domaćih proizvodnih kapaciteta, očuvanje strateških prirodnih resursa te jačanje otpornosti kritične infrastrukture. Jednako su važni učinkoviti regulatorni mehanizmi kojima država zadržava nadzor nad resursima od strateškog značaja. No, generalno, nacionalna otpornost se ne treba promatrati isključivo kao sposobnost odgovora na izvanredne događaje, nego prije svega kao sposobnost dugoročnog upravljanja strateškim resursima.

Budući da su energija, hrana i voda međusobno neraskidivo povezani, otpornost države ovisi o integriranom upravljanju tim trima sustavima. Stoga, energetska tranzicija, modernizacija poljoprivrede, zaštita vodnih resursa i ulaganja u kritičnu infrastrukturu nisu samo razvojna i okolišna pitanja, nego i pitanja nacionalne sigurnosti.

Države koje raspolažu vlastitim resursima, ali nemaju dovoljno razvijene institucionalne kapacitete za njihovo strateško upravljanje, mogu biti gotovo jednako ranjive kao i države koje takvim resursima uopće ne raspolažu.

Izvor podataka:

• DSZ. Robna razmjena Republike Hrvatske s inozemstvom, Priopćenje, VT-2025-1-2, Zagreb, 29.05.2025.. https://podaci.dzs.hr/2025/hr/97249

• Eurostat (2026a). Energy import dependence. kod: nrg_ind_id, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/wdn-20260318-1

• Eurostat (2026b). Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by sector, kod: sdg_07_40, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_07_40/default/table?lang=en

• Eurostat (2026c). Water resources: long-term annual average, kod: ten00001, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ten00001__custom_22227033/default/table

Prof. Dr. Sc. Đula BorozanFaculty of Economics in Osijek,
Josip Juraj Strossmayer University in Osijek

Energy, food and water security – key challenges and perspectives for Croatia

1. Energy, food and water security in modern society

In recent years , energy security, food security and access to clean water have become among the most important global development and security issues. Climate change, geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in supply chains and rising energy prices have shown how interconnected these three areas are and how their stability directly affects the quality of life of the population and the economic development of countries.

Energy is needed at almost all stages of the food chain – from the production of mineral fertilizers, irrigation and the operation of agricultural machinery to the processing, storage, cooling and transport of food. This shows the direct impact of energy on food production. The indirect impact is manifested through the increase in production costs due to higher electricity and fuel prices, which is ultimately reflected in the increase in retail food prices. At the same time, the energy sector is significantly dependent on water. Hydropower plants use water resources to produce electricity, while thermal and nuclear power plants require large amounts of water for cooling. Agriculture , on the other hand, is the largest consumer of freshwater in the world. Therefore, decisions made in one sector often have consequences for the other two.

2. Croatia in the context of energy, food and water security

Croatia has valuable natural resources, but at the same time it is significantly dependent on the import of energy and some food products. This duality largely determines its position in the field of energy, food and water security. Although the situation in each of these areas can be analyzed using a large number of indicators, only some of the more important indicators and only some of the issues related to national security are highlighted below.

Energy (in)security. According to the latest available data from Eurostat (2026a), Croatia’s energy dependence remains high. Net energy imports in 2020 amounted to 53.56%, and in 2024 they will increase to 59.9% of total available energy, which is slightly above the European Union average (around 57%). Dependence on natural gas imports is particularly pronounced, reaching 69.2% in 2024, while dependence on oil and oil products imports is as high as 91.5%. Such a structure increases the sensitivity of the Croatian economy to disruptions in international energy markets and to changes in energy prices.

However, Croatia’s sensitivity to changes in energy prices is not solely a consequence of movements in the world market, but also of domestic long-term development and energy policies. For example, the privatization of INA and the shutdown of processing at the Sisak Refinery increased dependence on oil imports and reduced the possibility of influencing the value chain in the oil sector. Or, for example, the long-standing focus of transport infrastructure on road transport, with insufficient investments in railways, electrification and alternative fuels, has further increased demand for oil products and the economy’s exposure to oil shocks.

At the same time, Croatia is making significant progress in the development of renewable energy sources. Eurostat data (2026b) show that their share in gross final energy consumption increased from 23.69% in 2005 to 28.5% in 2025. Although the European Union also increased the share of renewable sources from 10.18% to 26.2% in the same period, Croatia has maintained a share above the European average throughout the period. This represents an important development advantage and contributes to strengthening energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the development of renewable energy sources also raises new questions from a national security perspective. Although it increases domestic energy production and reduces dependence on fossil fuel imports, energy sovereignty also depends on ownership of production capacities, management of critical infrastructure, and control of key technologies. Since some of the large renewable energy projects in Croatia are being developed by foreign investors, and the European market remains largely dependent on imports of equipment and critical raw materials, some of the energy dependence is shifting from fossil fuels to the supply chains of critical technologies and raw materials.

3. Food (in)security. When it comes to food security, Croatia has significant agricultural potential, but its utilization is not satisfactory. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries together contribute approximately 3–4% to Croatia’s gross domestic product (GDP), with agriculture alone accounting for slightly more than 2% of GDP, with a slight downward trend in its share in recent years.

self-sufficient in the production of basic arable crops, such as wheat, corn, soybeans and oilseeds, and exports a portion of its production. However, the situation is much less favorable in the livestock sector. The production of meat, milk and eggs represents one of the weakest links in the Croatian food system. Of particular concern is the long-term decline in the number of dairy farms and dairy cows, which increases dependence on imported dairy products. A similar pattern is present in fruit and vegetables.

During the growing season, domestic production meets a large part of the market’s needs, while in the winter months a significant part of consumption is met through imports. Croatia often exports agricultural raw materials and imports food products with higher added value, which reduces the competitiveness of the domestic food industry and increases dependence on international markets. Data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS, 2025) confirm such statements; for example, in 2024, food and live animals worth 2,855,652 thousand EUR were exported, while goods worth 5,159,241 thousand EUR were imported, which confirms a pronounced trade deficit in this group of products. From a national security perspective, the greatest risk is not only the fact that Croatia imports some of its food, but also its dependence on imports of products that are key to the daily nutrition of the population and the functioning of the food system. If disruptions occur simultaneously in energy supply, transport, fertilizer production and international trade, the country’s ability to ensure sufficient quantities of food can be seriously impaired.

4. Water (in)security. Croatia is among the European Union countries richest in freshwater resources. According to Eurostat data (2026c), with 30,586 m³ of renewable water resources per capita, it ranks first among the European Union member states, and at the same time belongs to the group of countries with the largest reserves of renewable groundwater. Around 82% of water in the public water supply system comes from underground sources, while in almost two-thirds of water supply zones its quality allows distribution with standard disinfection, without the need for additional treatment.

However, the abundance of water resources does not mean that their security is guaranteed in the long term. Climate change is increasing the frequency of droughts, changing hydrological regimes and creating increasing pressure on available water quantities. The management of drinking water sources is gradually evolving from a communal and economic issue into a matter of national security. The system of concessions for the economic use of strategic drinking water sources deserves special attention. Some experts warn that the concentration of long-term concessions over important sources, such as Jamnica, Lipik, Sveti Rok and the source of the Cetina River, limits national water sovereignty.

Furthermore, the question arises whether the existing regulatory and supervisory mechanisms are sufficiently developed to ensure that the public interest prevails over commercial interests in all circumstances. This issue becomes particularly important in the context of climate change, increased demand for quality drinking water and possible future disruptions in its availability. National security therefore depends not only on the quantity of available water, but also on the institutional capacity of the state to maintain effective regulatory and management control over this resource.

5. Energy, food and water security as the foundation of national resilience

This brief analysis of energy, food and water security shows that Croatia finds itself in a paradox of sorts. On the one hand, it has significant natural resources – renewable energy sources, fertile agricultural land and one of the largest renewable freshwater potentials in the European Union. On the other hand, high dependence on energy imports, underutilization of agricultural potential and challenges in managing strategic water resources point to the existence of structural vulnerabilities that may limit the country’s resilience in crisis circumstances.

From a national security perspective , the key challenge is not only to ensure sufficient quantities of energy, food and water, but also to maintain the state’s ability to manage them effectively in conditions of disruption and crisis. This includes, among other things, reducing excessive import dependence, diversifying sources of supply, developing domestic production capacities, preserving strategic natural resources and strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure. Equally important are effective regulatory mechanisms by which the state retains control over resources of strategic importance. However, in general, national resilience should not be viewed solely as the ability to respond to extraordinary events, but above all as the ability to manage strategic resources in the long term.

Since energy, food and water are inextricably linked, a country’s resilience depends on the integrated management of these three systems. Therefore, energy transition, agricultural modernization, water resource protection and investment in critical infrastructure are not only development and environmental issues, but also national security issues.

States that have their own resources, but do not have sufficiently developed institutional capacities for their strategic management, can be almost as vulnerable as states that do not have such resources at all.

Data source:

• DSZ. Foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia, Press release, VT-2025-1-2, Zagreb, 29.05.2025. https://podaci.dzs.hr/2025/hr/97249

• Eurostat (2026a). Energy import dependence. kod: nrg_ind_id, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/wdn-20260318-1

• Eurostat (2026b). Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption by sector, kod: sdg_07_40, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_07_40/default/table?lang=en

• Eurostat (2026c). Water resources: long-term annual average, kod: ten00001, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/ten00001__custom_22227033/default/table