Dr.sc. Gordana Sekulić, energetski analitičar

1.Stupovi energetske suverenosti

Iskustva energetskih kriza različitog intenziteta i trajanja najčešće su posljedica ratnih sukoba i političkih tenzija, ali i uz to vezanih ekonomskih poremećaja, zatim tehničkih, klimatskih, globalno-zdravstvenih i dr. čimbenika. Stoga je domaća proizvodnja energije, posebno primarne, jedan od najvažnijih stupova ekonomske i političke stabilnosti i suvereniteta čemu također pridonose diverzificiranost pravaca opskrbe, zalihe i skladištenje te sklad i sinergija energetske politike/mjera i korporativnog upravljanja uz kontinuitet ulaganja. Poseban je problem zavisnosti o uvozu tehnologija u svim energetskim sektorima.

Kakvo je stanje s energetskim suverenitetom Republike Hrvatske smatramo poželjnim pokazati nekim konkretnim pokazateljima.

2.Dugoročni trend pada proizvodnje primarne energije

Zbog kontinuiranog smanjenja domaće proizvodnje primarnih energenata raste uvozna energetska zavisnost na oko 60 %, a čemu su ponajviše doprinijeli: smanjenje rezervi nafte i kondenzata za čak 56,5 %, a njihove proizvodnje za 23,5 %; rezervi prirodnog plina za 46,7 % i njegove proizvodnje za čak 78 %. (2010.-2025/2014.).

Takvi trendovi su suprotni dugoročnim nacionalnim ciljevima Strategije iz 2020., kao i prethodnih Strategija. Prijedlog novog Zakona o istraživanju i eksploataciji energetskih georesursa (srpanj 2026.) je na dobrom/poželjnom putu stvaranja boljih uvjeta razvoja domaćih georesursa kao npr. nafte i plina koji čine 67 % ukupne potrošnje energije, a uvozna zavisnost im je 83%, odnosno 69 % (2024.)

Razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE) je sporiji od strateških ciljeva. Njihov udjel u bruto neposrednoj potrošnji energije je 26,7 % (2024.), a cilj u 2030. je 42,5 %. Pritom drvo i biomasa imaju dominantan udjel u ukupnim OIE (56 %), vodne snage 26 %, a vjetar, sunce i dr. OIE svega oko 18 %.

3.Proizvodnja električne energije iz OIE je važan strateški doprinos suverenosti

Uz snažan rast proizvodnje povećan je značaj vjetro elektrana na 16,8 %, a solarnih na 5,3 % u ukupnoj proizvodnji električne energija dok hidroelektrane još uvijek dominiraju s udjelom od oko 45 % (2024.).

Strateški cilj povećanja OIE u potrošnji električne energije od 76,6 % u 2030. moguć je samo uz znatno veća ulaganja u svim sektorima.

4.Diverzifikacija uvoza primarnih energenata jača suverenost Hrvatske, ali i država EU-a

Naftovodno-skladišna infrastruktura JANAF-a već skoro pola stoljeća pruža mogućnosti uvoza nafte iz brojnih destinacija za Hrvatsku, Srbiju, Mađarsku, Slovačku i Češku, te za Sloveniju i Bosnu i Hercegovinu prije zatvaranja njihovih rafinerija.

Postojeća plinovodna infrastruktura Plinacro-a i Terminala UPP-a pružaju mogućnosti uvoza plina iz brojnih destinacija za Hrvatsku, Sloveniju, Mađarsku, ali i Ukrajinu, BiH, Srbiju, Crnu Goru,… uz daljnji razvoj domaće i interkonekcijske plinovodne mreže te razvoj vodikovoda.

5.Rezerve i skladištenje – čimbenici sigurnosti i suverenosti, posebno u kriznim situacijama

Nafta: Postignuta je zakonska i sigurnosna razina izgrađenosti kapaciteta domaćih skladišta i količina obveznih zalihe nafte i naftnih derivata (2025./2026. – 93 dana prosječnog dnevnog neto uvoza iz 2024.). Pritom je razina sigurnosti ostvarena zahvaljujući značajnim ulaganjima (uglavnom države i JANAF-a) u skladišta i kupnju nafte i derivata.

Plin: Postiže se zakonska zapunjenost jedinog skladišta plina Okoli od najmanje 90 % do 1.11. svake godine, a zalihe su na razini oko 55 dana prosječnog dnevnog uvoza (iz 2025.). Izgradnjom (najranije 2027.) plinskog skladišta Grubišno polje to će biti oko 68 dana. Manja je sigurnost opskrbe nego kod nafte i naftnih derivata što upućuje na potrebu za novim skladišnim kapacitetima i/ili drugim mjerama.

Električna energija: Danas (2026.) nema značajnih kapaciteta za skladištenje električne energije, ali se politikom i mjerama Integriranog nacionalnog energetskog i klimatskog plana (2025.) predviđa povećanje mogućnosti skladištenja energije gradnjom spremnika temeljenih na baterijskim sustavima kod proizvođača, na razini prijenosne i distribucijske mreže i potrošača, zatim tehnologiji vodika, reverzibilnih hidroelektrana i dr. Do 2030. plan je izgradnja baterijskih spremnika snage 250 MW uz 250 mil. EUR-a ulaganja.

Zagreb, 13. kolovoza 2026.

Dr.sc. Gordana Sekulić, Energy Analyst

The Strategic Importance of Greater Efforts to Increase Energy Sovereignty

1.Pillars of energy sovereignty

Experiences of energy crises of varying intensity and duration are often the result of war conflicts and political tensions, as well as related economic disruptions, technical issues, climatic factors, global health concerns, and other factors. Therefore, domestic energy production, especially primary energy, is one of the most important pillars of economic and political stability and sovereignty, which is also contributed by the diversification of supply routes, emergency stocks and storage, as well as the harmony and synergy of energy policy/measures and corporate governance with the continuity of investments. There is a particular problem of dependence on the import of technologies in all energy sectors.

We consider it desirable to show the situation with the energy sovereignty of the Republic of Croatia with some concrete indicators.

2.Long-Term Trend of Declining Primary Energy Production

Due to the continuous decline in domestic production of primary energy resources, energy import dependency has increased to approximately 60%. This has been driven primarily by a 56.5% reduction in oil and condensate reserves and a 23.5% decline in their production; a 46.7% reduction in natural gas reserves and a significant 78% decline in its production (2010–2025/2014).

Such trends run counter to the long-term national objectives set out in the 2020 Energy Strategy, as well as in previous Strategies. The Draft Law on the Exploration and Exploitation of Energy Georesources (July 2026) is moving in a positive/desirable direction toward creating better conditions for the development of domestic energy georesources, such as oil and natural gas, which together account for 67% of total energy consumption, while their import dependency stands at 83 % and 69%, respectively (2024).

The development of renewable energy sources (RES) is progressing more slowly than envisaged by the strategic targets. Their share in gross final energy consumption was 26.7% in 2024, while the target for 2030 is 42.5%. At the same time, wood and biomass account for the dominant share of total RES (56%), hydropower for 26%, while wind, solar, and other RES account for only around 18%.

3.Electricity Generation from RES Is an Important Strategic Contribution to Energy Sovereignty

With strong growth in electricity generation, the importance of wind power has increased to 16.8% and solar power to 5.3% of total electricity generation, while hydropower plants still dominate, with a share of approximately 45% (2024).

The strategic target of increasing the share of renewable energy sources in electricity consumption to 76.6% by 2030 can only be achieved through significantly higher investment across all sectors.

4.Diversification of Primary Energy Imports Strengthens Croatia’s Energy Sovereignty as well as EU Member States

For almost half a century, JANAF’s oil transportation and storage infrastructure has provided opportunities to import crude oil from numerous destinations for Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, as well as for Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina prior to the closure of their refineries.

The existing gas pipeline infrastructure operated by Plinacro, together with the LNG terminal, provides opportunities to import natural gas from numerous sources for Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, as well as Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, and others. This can be further supported through the continued development of the domestic and cross-border gas pipeline network, as well as the development of hydrogen pipelines.

5.Reserves and Storage – Key Factors for Security and Sovereignty, Especially in Crisis Situations

Oil: The legally required and security-related level of domestic storage capacity and compulsory stocks of crude oil and petroleum products has been achieved (2025/2026 – equivalent to 93 days of average daily net imports in 2024). This level of security has been achieved through significant investments, primarily by the state and JANAF, in storage facilities and the procurement of crude oil and petroleum products.

Natural Gas: The legally required storage level of at least 90% of the country’s only underground gas storage facility, Okoli, is achieved by 1 November each year. The available stocks correspond to approximately 55 days of average daily imports (based on 2025 data). With the construction of the Grubišno Polje gas storage facility, expected no earlier than 2027, this would increase to approximately 68 days. Security of supply is lower than for oil and petroleum products, indicating the need for additional storage capacity and/or other measures to strengthen supply security.

Electricity: As of today (2026), there are no significant electricity storage capacities. However, the policies and measures set out in the 2025 Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan envisage increasing energy storage capabilities through the deployment of battery-based storage systems at generation facilities, at the transmission and distribution network levels, and at consumer sites, as well as through hydrogen technologies, pumped-storage hydropower plants, and other solutions. By 2030, the plan envisages the deployment of 250 MW of battery storage capacity, supported by investments of EUR 250 million.

Zagreb, August 13, 2026