Dalibor Dobrić

Novinar,Zagreb

Montel

1.Zvuči to  dapače odlično!

 Svu energiju koju ćemo trošiti proizvodit ćemo ovdje. Zvuči to, dapače, odlično. Ali kako to ostvariti? I još važnije, što to zapravo znači?

Za početak, da se razumijemo, govorimo o električnoj energiji, jer zamijeniti svu uvoznu naftu domaćim alternativama poseban je problem. Elektrifikacija prometa u Hrvatskoj i na širem Balkanu će polako, moramo prvo istrijebiti¨“ sve polovne dizelaše koje ćemo uvesti iz Njemačke. Osim ako veliki genije s one strane bare ne dovede barel nafte na 300 dolara, ali sad već skrećem s teme.

Proizvesti svu, ali baš svu električnu energiju koju primjerice Hrvatska potroši tijekom godine, u svakom trenutku, bez imalo uvoza, zahtijeva proširiti energetski miks i povećati instalirani kapacitet različitih izvora energije na takvu razinu da bilo kada, bez obzira na uvjete, imamo dovoljno energije za sve potrebe.

Dakle, na minimalno 3400 MW u satnom vršnom opterećenju ovoga ljeta. A to je negdje 12-ak hrvatskih polovina nuklearke Krško. A tek zimi? Kad zimsko vršno opterećenje opet preskoči maloprije spomenuto ljetno jer ako ste energetski suvereni, neovisni i samodostatni, onda ne trebate uvozni plin za grijanje i kuhanje i proizvodnju struje, a Hrvatska proizvodi ni trećinu onoga što potroši, s tim da je ta brojka sve manja i svu domaću proizvodnju (pa i puno više) bi pojela Petrokemija da radi punom parom.

Kad smo kod nuklearki, sretno s time.! Hrvatska još uvijek nije riješila ni zbrinjavanje  niskoradioaktivnog otpada u Čerkezovu, a kamoli da je spremna za raspravu o nekoliko gigawata nuklearki. Pogledajmo samo kako je dočekana inicijativa da se donese zakon o korištenju nuklearne energije i gdje je zapela.

2.Kad se Dunav pretvori u potok i ukažu rimske lađe

Imamo mi dovoljno instaliranih hidrocentrala. Imamo, ali nemamo uvijek vode u njima da mogu raditi 24 sata, sedam dana tjedno, 365 dana u godini. A ova je godina pokazala što sve izroni kada se čak i moćni Dunav pretvori u potok.

3.Solari.Hrvatska kao zemlja sunca

 Ta Hrvatska je zemlja sunca – ali svejedno gleda u leđa Mađarskoj, Rumunjskoj, Bugarskoj koje sve imaju pet, šest pa i osam puta više solara od nas pa zašto onda već nemamo 20-30 GW instalirano? Plus baterije, naravno, jer sunce  ne sjaji po noći, a mi baterija imamo – 61 MW.

4.A „vitar puše“ !  Ni sunce nije ¨za bacit“. Ali što ćemo s uvozom panela?

Vjetar? Da, ali vjerojatno ste u znoju lica svoga primijetili da toplinski valovi umrtve i najblaži povjetarac.

A nismo se ni dotakli činjenice da solarne panele većinom uvozimo, a i ono što proizvodimo treba komponente i sirovine. Uvozimo i dijelove za vjetroelektrane. I nuklearno gorivo, no to uvoze Slovenci, „naša“ nuklearka nije pod našom kontrolom…

5. Energetska suverenost

Energetska suverenost u takvom apstraktnom, apsolutnom smislu — potpuna samodostatnost u svim okolnostima — jednostavno je nedostižna za suvremenu Europu. Dapače, bila bi suluda.

Ali ako pod „suverenošću” razumijemo izgradnju i obnovu 50-ak godina stare prijenosne i distributivne mreže koja je otporna na ugroze, požare, toplinske valove  to ima smisla. Ali sabotaže, sposobnost brzog pokretanja rezervnih proizvodnih kapaciteta u slučaju prekida međunarodne trgovine, izvanrednih situacija ili naglog rasta cijena energenata, onda je zahtjev realniji — i treba ga jasno ugraditi u politiku.

Lako je odgovoriti na pitanje zašto Hrvatska nema 10 nuklearki, 30 GW solara, pučine prepune vjetroelektrana i hidrocentrale na svakoj rijeci. Zašto nema više postrojenja na bioplin i biomasu, kao i zašto tek sad stidljivo pokreće korištenje geotermalne energije, usput, jedina dva izvora energije za koje sve imamo „kod kuće“, to je teže reći.

Zašto bar nema modernu i otpornu energetsku mrežu, više inter konekcija, više baterija (puno više baterija), sustave reakcije na potrošnju (inter konekcija), pametne mreže i primjerice tarife koje će poticati korištenje energije onda kada je jeftina, a ne kada je najskuplja, zašto su praktički zakočene energetske zajednice građana koje dijele energiju…, e, na to je već puno teže odgovoriti.

Energetska suverenost—ako je shvatimo kao razumni energetski miks koji uglavnom odgovara domaćim potrebama, proširen rezervama za sposobnost brzog domaćeg odgovora u krizama, potpomognut inter konekcijama, uz strateške rezerve goriva i kritičnih dijelova, domaćim servisnim centrima i remontnim kapacitetima, planovima za prioritetizaciju potrošnje i skalabilnim sustavima pohrane—je realistično i razumno načelo. Ne mora svaka država sve proizvoditi lokalno, ali mora moći odgovoriti na probleme. To je suverenost koja stvarno nešto znači.

Dalibor Dobric

Journalist, Zagreb

Montel

Energy sovereignty and energy self-sufficiency

1. That sounds great!

All the energy we will consume will be produced here. That sounds great, in fact. But how do we achieve that? And more importantly, what does that actually mean?

To begin with, let’s be clear, we are talking about electricity, because replacing all imported oil with domestic alternatives is a special problem. The electrification of transport in Croatia and the wider Balkans will go slowly, we must first exterminate all the second-hand diesels that we will import from Germany. Unless the great genius from across the pond brings a barrel of oil to $300 , but I’m already digressing.

Producing all, but absolutely all, of the electricity that Croatia, for example, consumes during the year, at any time, without any imports, requires expanding the energy mix and increasing the installed capacity of various energy sources to such a level that at any time, regardless of the conditions, we have enough energy for all needs .

So, at a minimum of 3400 MW in hourly peak load this summer. And that’s about 12 Croatian halves of the Krško nuclear power plant. And only in winter? When the winter peak load again exceeds the aforementioned summer one, because if you are energy sovereign, independent and self-sufficient , then you don’t need imported gas for heating and cooking and electricity production, and Croatia produces not even a third of what it consumes, with the proviso that this figure is getting smaller and all domestic production (and much more) would be eaten by Petrokemija if it were operating at full steam.

Speaking of nuclear power plants, good luck with that! Croatia still hasn’t even solved the disposal issue.  of low-level radioactive waste in Čerkezovo, let alone that it is ready to discuss several gigawatts of nuclear power plants. Let’s just look at how the initiative to pass a law on the use of nuclear energy was received and where it got stuck.

2. When the Danube turns into a stream and Roman ships appear

We have enough installed hydroelectric power plants . We do, but we don’t always have enough water in them to operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. And this year has shown what emerges when even the mighty Danube turns into a stream.

3. Solariums. Croatia as the land of the sun

Croatia is a country of sunshine – but it still looks down on Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, which all have five, six, and even eight times more solar panels than us, so why don’t we already have 20-30 GW installed? Plus batteries, of course, because the sun doesn’t shine at night, and we have batteries – 61 MW.

4. And ” the wind blows”! The sun is not “to be thrown away” either. But what about importing panels?

Wind ? Yes, but you’ve probably noticed in the sweat of your brow that heat waves deaden even the slightest breeze.

And we haven’t even touched on the fact that we mostly import solar panels , and what we produce needs components and raw materials. We also import parts for wind power plants. And nuclear fuel, but that is imported by Slovenians, “our” nuclear plant is not under our control…

5. Energy sovereignty

Energy sovereignty in such an abstract, absolute sense — complete self-sufficiency in all circumstances — is simply unattainable for contemporary Europe. In fact, it would be insane.

But if by ” sovereignty” we understand the construction and renovation of a 50-year-old transmission and distribution network that is resistant to threats, fires, and heat waves, it makes sense. But sabotage, the ability to quickly launch reserve production capacities in the event of interruption of international trade, emergency situations or a sudden rise in energy prices, then the demand is more realistic — and should be clearly incorporated into the policy .

It’s easy to answer the question of why Croatia doesn’t have 10 nuclear power plants, 30 GW of solar power, an open sea full of wind farms and hydroelectric power plants on every river. Why there aren’t more biogas and biomass plants, and why it’s only now timidly starting to use geothermal energy, by the way, the only two energy sources we all have “at home”, is harder to say.

Why doesn’t it at least have a modern and resilient energy grid, more interconnections , more batteries (a lot more batteries), consumption response systems ( interconnections ), smart grids and, for example, tariffs that will encourage the use of energy when it is cheap, not when it is most expensive, why are energy communities of citizens that share energy practically paralyzed… well, that’s much harder to answer.

Energy sovereignty —understood as a reasonable energy mix that largely meets domestic needs, augmented by reserves for rapid domestic response in crises, supported by interconnections , strategic reserves of fuel and critical parts, domestic service centers and repair capacities, consumption prioritization plans, and scalable storage systems—is a realistic and reasonable principle. Not every country needs to produce everything locally, but it needs to be able to respond to problems. That is sovereignty that really matters.