Prof. dr. sc. Darko Tipurić
Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu

1.Samodostatnost

Pojam koji su stari Grci nazivali αὐτάρκεια, samodostatnost, u Aristotelovoj Politici ne označava zatvorenost zajednice prema svijetu, već njezinu sposobnost da vlastitim snagama osigura uvjete dobra života. Polis koji ne može prehraniti svoje građane niti ugrijati njihove domove nije slobodna zajednica, nego tuđa provincija s vlastitom zastavom. Ta drevna misao danas zvuči gotovo anakrono, jer smo desetljećima živjeli u uvjerenju da je globalno tržište pouzdan jamac opskrbe, a međuovisnost sama po sebi izvor sigurnosti. Pandemija, rat u Ukrajini i energetska kriza koja je uslijedila razotkrili su krhkost toga uvjerenja, pokazavši da ovisnost nije neutralna ekonomska kategorija, već prikriveni odnos moći. Na to je upozoravao Albert Hirschman (1945), pokazujući kako se asimetrična trgovinska ovisnost preobražava u instrument političkog pritiska. Keynes je u eseju National Self-Sufficiency (1933) otišao i korak dalje, dovodeći u pitanje dogmu po kojoj je maksimalna međunarodna specijalizacija uvijek racionalna.

2. Država koja temeljne uvjete opstanka predaje u tuđe ruke predaje i dio vlastite sposobnosti odlučivanja. Hrvatska kao paradigmatički slučaj

Ni jedan ni drugi nisu zagovarali autarkiju kao ideologiju. Obojica su, međutim, razumjela da država koja temeljne uvjete opstanka predaje u tuđe ruke predaje i dio vlastite sposobnosti odlučivanja. Hrvatska je u tom pogledu paradigmatski slučaj zemlje koja ima, a zapravo nema. Raspolaže plodnim slavonskim i baranjskim ravnicama, obilnim vodnim resursima, dugim sunčanim razdobljima i razvedenom obalom, a ipak iz godine u godinu produbljuje manjak u razmjeni hranom. Deficit u vanjskotrgovinskoj razmjeni poljoprivredno-prehrambenih proizvoda dosegnuo je 2025. oko tri milijarde eura, što premašuje tri posto BDP-a i gotovo je trostruko više nego u godini pristupanja Europskoj uniji (HUP, 2026). Zbirni manjak od 2013. nadmašio je 14,5 milijardi eura, iznos koji se približava polovici godišnjih prihoda državnog proračuna.

3. Vrijednost poljoprivredne proizvodnje

Vrijednost poljoprivredne proizvodnje pritom je oko 14 posto niža nego 2013. Hrane, dakle, proizvodimo manje nego prije ulaska u Uniju, a trošimo je više. Iza agregatnih brojki krije se još porazniji strukturni prikaz. Samodostatnost u mesu pala je na 63 posto: u goveđem mesu s 90 na 58 posto, u svinjskom sa 67 na 50 posto, dok se broj rasplodnih goveda smanjio za 58, a svinja za 48 posto (HGK, 2025). Zemlja koja je nekoć bila značajan proizvođač svinjetine danas izvozi žive svinje, a uvozi meso pripremljeno za police trgovačkih lanaca. Kod voća i povrća izvozu od oko 230 milijuna eura suprotstavljen je uvoz od gotovo 738 milijuna. Paradoks doseže vrhunac u soji, koje proizvodimo višestruko više nego što trošimo i izvozimo je kao sirovinu, dok sojino ulje uvozimo jer nemamo dostatnih prerađivačkih kapaciteta. Izvozimo nisku, a uvozimo visoku dodanu vrijednost. Poljoprivredna zemljišta ostaju neobrađena, sela se prazne, a zadrugarstvo, koje je drugdje u Europi temelj pregovaračke moći malih proizvođača, u nas i dalje nosi stigmu prošlosti. Nije riječ o usudu, već o posljedici loših izbora. Poljoprivreda je dugo tretirana kao socijalna kategorija, a ne kao strateška djelatnost, pa ne iznenađuje da produktivnost rada doseže tek četrdesetak posto europskog prosjeka. Potpore su se raspodjeljivale prema logici klijentelizma, a ne produktivnosti, poprimajući obilježja socijalnih transfera prije negoli razvojnih ulaganja.

4. Privatizacija prehrambenih i poljoprivrednih kombinata

Privatizacija prehrambenih i poljoprivrednih kombinata provedena je, u pravilu, bez ikakve predodžbe o tome što ta imovina znači za nacionalnu sigurnost. Nastala je struktura u kojoj se profit koncentrira u trgovini i distribuciji, a rizik i siromaštvo ostaju kod proizvođača. Kako podsjeća Douglass North (1990), institucije oblikuju strukturu poticaja; naše su institucije sustavno nagrađivale uvoz, a kažnjavale proizvodnju.

5. U energetici je slika slojevitija

 U energetici je slika slojevitija, ali ništa manje zabrinjavajuća. Uzmu li se u obzir promet, grijanje i industrija, Hrvatska uvozi više od polovice energije koju troši, a njezina opskrba i dalje pretežito počiva na fosilnim gorivima. Ni elektroenergetski sustav, unatoč dojmljivom udjelu obnovljivih izvora koji je 2024. dosegnuo 73,7 posto neto proizvodnje, nije samodostatan. U 2025. domaće elektrane pokrile su 69,6 posto potrošnje, Nuklearna elektrana Krško 14,4 posto, a preostalih 16 posto podmireno je uvozom, koji je u godinu dana porastao za 36,6 posto (OIEH, 2026). Najranjiviji su ljetni mjeseci, kada turistička potrošnja i slabija hidrologija podižu udio uvoza i do trećine potreba.

Visok udio obnovljivih izvora, valja reći, više svjedoči o naslijeđu hidroenergetskih ulaganja iz prošlog stoljeća nego o dometima suvremene energetske politike. Istodobno, LNG terminal na Krku pokazao je da strateška infrastruktura, kada je politička volja jasna, može preobraziti položaj zemlje. Nakon proširenja na 6,1 milijardu kubičnih metara godišnje njegov kapacitet uplinjavanja više je nego dvostruko veći od ukupne domaće potrošnje plina, čime se Hrvatska s kraja opskrbnih lanaca pomiče prema ulozi regionalnog čvorišta. Taj primjer valja pamtiti upravo zato što je iznimka, a ne pravilo. Pritom ne treba brkati diverzifikaciju sa samostalnošću: terminal je umnožio dobavne pravce, ali nije ukinuo ovisnost o uvoznom plinu, dok domaća proizvodnja pokriva tek petinu potrošnje.

 Potencijal sunčeve energije ostaje nedovoljno iskorišten, a administrativne procedure za priključenje na mrežu godinama su djelovale kao prepreka, a ne kao poticaj. Hidroenergetski sustav stari, elektroenergetska mreža nije građena za decentraliziranu proizvodnju, a rasprava o dugoročnoj ulozi nuklearne energije tek se odnedavno vodi na razini strateške ozbiljnosti. Slovenija u međuvremenu razvija projekt drugog bloka u Krškom, s konačnom investicijskom odlukom predviđenom do 2029. godine, dok Hrvatska, unatoč polovičnom suvlasništvu postojeće elektrane, u tom projektu zasad ne sudjeluje i ograničava se na izjave o otvorenosti. Između deklaracije i odluke prostire se upravo onaj međuprostor u kojem se strateške prilike najčešće nepovratno gube. Zajednički nazivnik obiju ovisnosti nije nedostatak resursa, već nedostatak strateškog mišljenja.

     6.Morokracija

 Država koja upravlja kratkoročno, od izbora do izbora, ne može graditi sustave čiji se učinci mjere desetljećima. Potrebna je razboritost donositelja odluke i otklon fasadnih institucija, Državna poduzeća u energetici i poljoprivredi ostaju, nažalost, prostor morokracije i kadrovske podobnosti, a ne upravljačke izvrsnosti.

    7.Treba pritom izbjeći jednu opasnu zamku

 Treba pritom izbjeći jednu opasnu zamku. Samostalnost ne smije postati izgovor za novi protekcionistički populizam niti za romantičnu nostalgiju za zatvorenim gospodarstvom. Hrvatska je članica Europske unije i njezina se sigurnost ne može graditi protiv zajedničkog tržišta, nego unutar njega. Cilj nije autarkija, već otpornost; ne potpuna neovisnost, već dostatna sposobnost da se u trenutku krize ne ovisi o milosti drugih. Iz svega proizlazi da prehrambenu i energetsku sigurnost treba institucionalno prepoznati kao pitanje nacionalne strategije, izdignuto iznad izbornih ciklusa.

Poljoprivredne potpore valja vezati uz stvarnu proizvodnju, udruživanje proizvođača i razvoj prerađivačkih kapaciteta, jer se dodana vrijednost stvara u preradi, a ne u prodaji sirovine.

U energetici je nužno ubrzati izgradnju obnovljivih izvora, spremnika energije i modernizaciju mreže, uz ozbiljnu i stručnu, a ne ideološku, raspravu o dugoročnoj energetskoj mješavini, uključujući i nuklearnu opciju. Upravljanje državnim poduzećima u tim sektorima mora počivati na profesionalnosti i transparentnosti, jer se pametno postavljeni strateški ciljevi ne mogu ostvariti kroz institucije zarobljene partitokratskom i morokratskom logikom.

    8.Što nije samostalnost?

Samostalnost nije pitanje zastava i deklaracija, nego pitanje sposobnosti. Suverenost koja ne može prehraniti svoje građane niti gospodarstvu osigurati energiju ostaje tek pričin. Zato pitanje energetske i prehrambene samostalnosti nije ekonomski tehnicizam, nego ispit zrelosti hrvatske države i njezinih elita: jesu li sposobne misliti dalje od sljedećeg mandata i graditi temelje koji će nadživjeti one koji ih postavljaju?

 Literatura :

Aristotel. Politika. Zagreb: Globus, 1988. Hirschman, A. O. (1945). National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley: University of California Press. HGK (2025). Samodostatnost u proizvodnji mesa. Zagreb: Hrvatska gospodarska komora. HUP (2026). Fokus tjedna: poljoprivredno-prehrambeni sektor. Zagreb: Hrvatska udruga poslodavaca. Keynes, J. M. (1933). National Self-Sufficiency. The Yale Review, 22(4), 755–769. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. OIEH (2026). Elektroenergetske prilike u Hrvatskoj za 2025. godinu. Zagreb: Obnovljivi izvori energije Hrvatske.

Prof. Dr. Darko Tipurić
Faculty of Economics, University of Zagreb

An essay on the energy and food dependence of the Republic of Croatia

1. Self-sufficiency

The concept that the ancient Greeks called αὐτάρκεια, self-sufficiency , in Aristotle’s Politics does not denote the closure of a community to the world, but its ability to ensure the conditions of a good life with its own forces. A polis that cannot feed its citizens or warm their homes is not a free community, but a foreign province with its own flag . This ancient idea sounds almost anachronistic today, because for decades we have lived in the belief that the global market is a reliable guarantor of supply, and interdependence in itself is a source of security. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis that followed have exposed the fragility of this belief, showing that dependence is not a neutral economic category, but a hidden power relationship . Albert Hirschman (1945) warned about this, showing how asymmetric trade dependence is transformed into an instrument of political pressure. Keynes went a step further in his essay National Self-Sufficiency (1933) , questioning the dogma that maximum international specialization is always rational.

2. A state that surrenders the basic conditions of survival into the hands of others also surrenders part of its own decision-making capacity. Croatia as a paradigmatic case

Neither advocated autarky as an ideology. Both, however, understood that a state that surrenders the basic conditions of survival into the hands of others also surrenders part of its own decision-making capacity. In this respect, Croatia is a paradigmatic case of a country that has, but in fact does not have. It has the fertile Slavonian and Baranja plains, abundant water resources, long sunny periods and an indented coastline, and yet year after year it deepens its food trade deficit. The deficit in foreign trade in agricultural and food products reached around three billion euros in 2025, which exceeds three percent of GDP and is almost three times higher than in the year of accession to the European Union (HUP, 2026). The cumulative deficit since 2013 has exceeded 14.5 billion euros, an amount that is close to half of the annual state budget revenues.

3. Value of agricultural production

The value of agricultural production is about 14 percent lower than in 2013. We are therefore producing less food than before joining the Union, but consuming more. Behind the aggregate figures lies an even more devastating structural picture. Self-sufficiency in meat has fallen to 63 percent: in beef from 90 to 58 percent, in pork from 67 to 50 percent, while the number of breeding cattle has decreased by 58 and pigs by 48 percent (Croatian Chamber of Commerce, 2025). The country that was once a significant producer of pork now exports live pigs and imports meat prepared for the shelves of retail chains. In the case of fruit and vegetables, exports of about 230 million euros are offset by imports of almost 738 million. The paradox reaches its peak in soybeans, which we produce many times more than we consume and export as raw material, while we import soybean oil because we do not have sufficient processing capacity. We export low and import high added value. Agricultural land remains uncultivated, villages are emptying, and cooperatives, which elsewhere in Europe are the basis of the bargaining power of small producers, still carry the stigma of the past in our country. This is not fate, but the consequence of bad choices. Agriculture has long been treated as a social category, not as a strategic activity, so it is not surprising that labor productivity reaches only about forty percent of the European average. Subsidies were distributed according to the logic of clientelism, not productivity, taking on the characteristics of social transfers rather than development investments.

4. Privatization of food and agricultural combines

Privatization of food and agricultural plants was carried out, as a rule, without any idea of what these assets mean for national security. A structure has emerged in which profit is concentrated in trade and distribution, and risk and poverty remain with the producer. As Douglass North (1990) reminds us, institutions shape the structure of incentives; our institutions systematically rewarded imports and punished production.

5. In energy the image is more layered

In the energy sector, the picture is more complex, but no less worrying. If we take into account transport, heating and industry, Croatia imports more than half of the energy it consumes, and its supply still relies predominantly on fossil fuels. The electricity system, despite the impressive share of renewable sources, which reached 73.7 percent of net production in 2024, is not self-sufficient either. In 2025, domestic power plants covered 69.6 percent of consumption, the Krško Nuclear Power Plant 14.4 percent, and the remaining 16 percent was met by imports, which increased by 36.6 percent in one year (OIEH, 2026). The most vulnerable are the summer months, when tourist consumption and weaker hydrology raise the share of imports to up to a third of needs.

The high share of renewables , it must be said, testifies more to the legacy of hydropower investments from the last century than to the achievements of modern energy policy. At the same time, the LNG terminal on Krk has shown that strategic infrastructure, when the political will is clear, can transform the position of a country. After expansion to 6.1 billion cubic meters per year, its gasification capacity is more than double the total domestic gas consumption, thus moving Croatia from the end of the supply chain to the role of a regional hub. This example should be remembered precisely because it is the exception, not the rule. However, diversification should not be confused with independence: the terminal has multiplied supply routes, but has not abolished dependence on imported gas, while domestic production covers only a fifth of consumption.

The potential of solar energy remains underexploited, and administrative procedures for connecting to the grid have acted as an obstacle rather than an incentive for years. The hydropower system is aging, the electricity grid is not built for decentralized production, and the debate on the long-term role of nuclear energy has only recently been taken up at the level of strategic seriousness. Slovenia, meanwhile, is developing a project for a second unit in Krško, with a final investment decision scheduled for 2029, while Croatia, despite half-ownership of the existing power plant, is not participating in the project for the time being and is limiting itself to statements of openness. Between the declaration and the decision lies precisely the intervening space in which strategic opportunities are most often irretrievably lost. The common denominator of both dependencies is not a lack of resources, but a lack of strategic thinking.

6. Morocracy

A state that governs in the short term, from election to election, cannot build systems whose effects are measured over decades. Prudence on the part of decision-makers and the removal of facade institutions are needed. State-owned enterprises in energy and agriculture remain, unfortunately, a space of bureaucracy and personnel suitability , rather than management excellence.

7. One dangerous trap to avoid

A dangerous trap must be avoided. Independence must not become an excuse for a new protectionist populism or for romantic nostalgia for a closed economy. Croatia is a member of the European Union and its security cannot be built against the common market, but within it. The goal is not autarky , but resilience; not complete independence, but sufficient ability not to depend on the mercy of others in times of crisis . From all this, it follows that food and energy security should be institutionally recognized as an issue of national strategy, elevated above election cycles.

Agricultural subsidies should be tied to actual production, the association of producers and the development of processing capacities, because added value is created in processing, not in the sale of raw materials.

In the energy sector, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of renewable sources, energy storage and grid modernization, with a serious and professional, not ideological, debate on the long-term energy mix, including the nuclear option. The management of state-owned enterprises in these sectors must be based on professionalism and transparency, because wisely set strategic goals cannot be achieved through institutions trapped by party-political and bureaucratic logic.

     8.What is not independence?

Independence is not a question of flags and declarations, but a question of capabilities. A sovereignty that cannot feed its citizens or provide energy to the economy remains only a pretext . That is why the question of energy and food independence is not an economic technicality, but a test of the maturity of the Croatian state and its elites: are they capable of thinking beyond the next mandate and building foundations that will outlive those who set them?

Literature:

Aristotle. Politics. Zagreb: Globus, 1988. Hirschman, AO (1945). National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley: University of California Press. HGK (2025). Self-sufficiency in meat production. Zagreb: Croatian Chamber of Commerce. HUP (2026). Focus of the week: agricultural and food sector. Zagreb: Croatian Employers’ Association. Keynes, JM (1933). National Self-Sufficiency. The Yale Review, 22(4), 755–769. North, DC (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. OIEH (2026). Electricity prospects in Croatia for 2025. Zagreb: Renewable energy sources of Croatia.