Diplomat, dr.sc.Karino Hromin Sturm , Zagreb

1.Između prirodnih resursa, uvozne ovisnosti i strateških odluka

Energetska suverenost danas predstavlja jedan od ključnih stupova gospodarske sigurnosti svake države. Iako Hrvatska raspolaže vlastitim zalihama nafte i prirodnog plina te značajnim potencijalom za proizvodnju električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora, naši vodni resursi nisu iskorišteni. Ima starih planova hidro elektrana, ali iz nekih razloga nijedna Vlada RH nije pokrenula te projekte. Domaća proizvodnja nije dostatna za podmirenje ukupnih potreba. Tko smo ovisni o uvozu energenata, osobito naftnih derivata, plina i električne energije. 

Hrvatska ima gospodarske posljedice uvozne ovisnosti te veliki negativni utjecaj posljedica privatizacije INA-e na energetsku sigurnost Republike Hrvatske. Najtužnije je to što su krivci za to Premijeri RH. Prvu prodaju 25% plus 1. dionicu, prodao je Ivica Račan mađarskom MOL-u 2005. godine. Premijer Ivo Sanader je prodao putem fondova ostalih 24%, 2008. i 2009. godine tako da MOL ima 49% dionica sa upravljačkim pravima, ukupno za 505 milijuna dolara. Što je ne zamislivo u poslovnom svijetu. Premijeru Sanaderu je na suđenju dokazano da je primio mito za prodaju INE po takvim nepovoljnim za Hrvatsku uvjetima. Umjesto da Vlada iskoristi presudu suda i da poništi koruptivni ugovor s MOL-om, Vlada RH se sporila se MOL-om i dva puta izgubila arbitražni spor na sudu 2022. godine i platila 300 milijuna dolara plus kamate, a drugi puta 246 milijuna dolara i kamate. Tako ispada da je Hrvatska vratila sav uloženi kapital MOL-u koji je dobio INU besplatno. Toliko o stručnosti naše Vlade i njezinih pravnih savjetnika. INA je prodana s 49% udjela i upravljačkim pravima za samo 505 milijuna $, a u to vrijeme je vrijednost INE bila oko 3,5 milijarde $, a s nalazištima nafte u Siriji i Belim Noćima u Rusiji po procjeni stručnjaka najmanje 4,0 milijarde dolara, da ne računamo izgubljenu dobit.

Zatim slijedi  MOL-ovo netransparentno upravljanje INA-om i tada je bivši ministar gospodarstva i generalni direktor, a 2010.g. predsjednik Nadzornog odbora INA-e Davor Stern, upozoravao Vladu da MOL ne poštuje ugovor i da radi protiv interesa Republike Hrvatske. Ali Vlada nije reagirala na upozorenja. I MOL je prestao sa preradom nafte u rafineriji Sisak 2018.g. a 2022 zatvorio rafineriju u potpunosti. Uglavnom MOL prevozi našu naftu u mađarsku i Hrvatska uvozi derivate iz Mađarske. Rafinerija u Rijeci je bila dugo zatvorena radi rekonstrukcije i sada radi sa pola kapaciteta. Praktički MOL iz Budimpešte upravlja s Hrvatskom naftom i preradom.

Sva sreća da se Vlada RH nije sjetila prodati Jadranski naftovod Omišalj i naftovod Družba-Adria. MOL je bila mala kompanija koju je INA mogla kupiti bez problema  i danas mogla biti naftni gigant u ovoj regiji. Ali tada su vladali premijer Ivica Račan i ministar financija Slavko Linić koji su zagovarali politiku; „prodaje“ i „stečaj je jedini izlaz“ i tako uništili našu privredu. Nikada im nije palo na pamet da se energenti države ne prodaju strancima. Energetika, to je pitanje nacionalne sigurnosti.

2.Nafta – uvozna ovisnost.

Hrvatska godišnje proizvede približno 500 do 600 tisuća tona sirove nafte, dok ukupna potrošnja višestruko premašuje domaću proizvodnju. Zbog toga se najveći dio sirove nafte uvozi, uglavnom preko Omišaljskog terminala JANAF-a, odakle se doprema u Rafineriju Rijeka. Terminal JANAF je vezan sa Ruskim naftovodom Družba Adria, putem koje se doprema nafta iz Rusije za Srbiju.

Naftni terminali u Hrvatskoj;

– JANAF Omišalj

– Virje

– Sisak

– Žitnjak – Zagreb

– Zadar

– Ploče

Rusija je nudila da se sagrade novi kapaciteti naftovoda 35 milijuna barela, zatim Multiprovod (Omišalj – Slavomski Brod) i Južni tok plinovoda kroz Hrvatsku u ukupnoj vrijednosti od 3,5 milijarde dolara. Na projektu sam radio kao diplomat, a posebno je bila osobna molba Kremlja da razgovaram sa Predsjednikom RH i Vladom RH o realizaciji ove investicije, toliko je bilo interesa u Rusiji. Međutim Vlada premijera Sanadera zbog politike Zapada odbila sve prijedloge. Što je ekonomski nonsens, jer tada još nije bilo naznaka Rusko Ukrajinskog rata. A u konačnici će rat jednom završiti i imali bi naftovode, multiprovod i plinovod sa značajnim energetskim potencijalom od 50 milijuna barela koji bi bili lijepi izvor zarade kao i tranzita od Europskih zemalja za Hrvatsku. Ali naši političari slušaju politiku Zapada, umjesto da rade za nacionalne interese Hrvatske.

Kako vidimo cijela Europska unija danas ima energetsku krizu zbog obustave ruske nafte i plina, a BDP im je zbog dvostruko skupih zapadnih energenata na nuli. Danas se prerada nafte odvija isključivo u Rafineriji Rijeka, nakon što je prerada u Sisku ugašena. Modernizirana riječka rafinerija raspolaže instaliranim kapacitetom od oko 4,5 milijuna tona godišnje, što predstavlja dovoljno velik kapacitet za preradu sirove nafte za hrvatsko tržište i dio regionalnih potreba.Unatoč tome, Hrvatska i dalje značajan dio benzina i posebno dizelskog goriva podmiruje uvozom. Razlozi su tržišna kretanja, struktura potražnje, raspoloživost pojedinih proizvoda te poslovna politika INA-e unutar MOL Grupe, koja radi za interese mađarske strane. Time domaće tržište ostaje osjetljivo na promjene cijena na međunarodnim tržištima.

3.Prirodni plin – veća sigurnost zahvaljujući LNG terminalu

Hrvatska proizvodi približno 35 do 40 % vlastitih potreba za prirodnim plinom, dok se ostatak uvozi. Proizvodnja se kreće oko 0,8 do 1,0 milijarde kubičnih metara godišnje, dok ukupna potrošnja iznosi približno 2,6 do 2,9 milijardi kubičnih metara. Najveća promjena dogodila se puštanjem u rad LNG terminala na Krku. Hrvatska je time dobila mogućnost nabave ukapljenog prirodnog plina iz različitih dijelova svijeta, uključujući SAD, Katar, Nigeriju, Azerbajdžan i Alžir. Čime je značajno smanjena ovisnost o jednom dobavnom pravcu. Međutim taj plin je puno skuplji od Ruskog plina.

Kada sam radio u diplomaciji na uspostavi diplomatskih odnosa sa Turkmenistanom 1992. g. ugovorio sam uvoz plina 1,5 milijardi kubičnih metara godišnje za Hrvatsku u kliringu je bio po 30% povoljniim cijenama i ugovor se odvijao osam godina. Logistika transporta je bila preko plinovoda Gazproma, a kupac u Hrvatskoj tada monopolist plina INA. Paradoksalno, Hrvatska danas nije potpuno plinski samodostatna, ali raspolaže infrastrukturom koja omogućuje uvoz količina plina većih od vlastite potrošnje te opskrbu susjednih država koji su u velikim problemima zbog rata Rusije u Ukrajini i sankcija ruskog plina.

4.Električna energija – gotovo samodostatni, ali ne u potpunosti

Hrvatska godišnje proizvede oko 15 TWh električne energije, što iznosi 90% naših potreba, a pri čemu proizvodnja ovisi o tržišnim i hidrološkim prilikama.

Proizvodnja električne energije u Hrvatskoj:

nuklearna energija 10,16%,
nafta 3,33%,
plin 33,58%,
ugljen 21,25%,
sunce 10,87%,
voda 6,94%,
biomasa 6,65%,
ostalo 7,22%.

Tako da oko 73%  dolazi iz „zelenih“ izvora. Ukupna domaća potrošnja nešto je veća, zbog čega se dio električne energije redovito uvozi putem zajedničkog europskog tržišta. Najvažniji izvori proizvodnje su; –

hidroelektrane,
nuklearna elektrana Krško (hrvatski udio),
termoelektrane,
vjetroelektrane,
sunčane elektrane,
biomasa i
geotermalni izvori.

U godinama s manjkom oborina proizvodnja hidroelektrana znatno pada, što povećava potrebu za uvozom električne energije. Upravo zbog toga razvoj sunčanih elektrana, baterijskih spremnika energije i modernizacija prijenosne mreže i korištenje geotermalnih izvora predstavljaju važne preduvjete dugoročne energetske sigurnosti.

5.Ekonomske posljedice uvozne ovisnosti

Svaka tona uvezene nafte, svaki kubični metar uvezenog plina i svaki megavatsat uvezene električne energije znače odljev kapitala iz hrvatskog gospodarstva. Kada cijene energenata rastu, rastu i troškovi proizvodnje, inflacija te izdaci kućanstava druge strane, povećanje domaće proizvodnje i prerade energenata ostavlja veću dodanu vrijednost u Hrvatskoj kroz nova radna mjesta, porezne prihode, investicije i veću otpornost gospodarstva na međunarodne poremećaje.

Zaključak

Hrvatska nije energetski bogata država. Međutim posjeduje nešto vlastite proizvodnje nafte. Imamo 43

eksploatacijska polja, u području Panonskog bazena (Slavonija, Moslavina Podravina) cjelokupnu domaću proizvodnju vrši INA. Nešto prirodnog plina, električne energije 17 velikih hidroelektrana ) snage veće od 10 MV, i 20 malih hidroelektrana, te desetak tisuća vjetroelektrana i sunčanih elektrana (35.000, u distribucijsku mrežu spojeno je 10.000 večih solarnih elektrana ).

Hrvatska je suvlasnik 50% Slovenske nuklearne elektrane i ima razvijen elektroenergetski sustav. Jadranski naftovod (JANAF, duljine 610 km) kapaciteta 20 milijuna tona godišnje, Družba – Adria naftovod, LNG terminal Omišalj, Sisak, Žitnjak –Zagreb, Virje i Slavonski Brod. Spojen je na međunarodni plinovod iz Mađarske koji se spaja kod Donjeg Miholjca i omogučije dvosmjerni transport plina, a Mađari su spojeni na Ruski plinovod, i po novom je spojen na Turski plinovod koji preko preko Bugarske i Srbije ulazi u Mađarsku.

Osim toga imamo značajan potencijal obnovljivih izvora energije. Ipak, Hrvatska još uvijek nije energetski suverena jer značajan dio nafte, naftnih derivata, prirodnog plina i električne energije osigurava uvozom.

Jedan od razloga prividne dostatnosti energenata u Hrvatskoj jest taj što smo od 1990. g. izgubili zbog pretvorbe i privatizacije 90% privredne proizvodnje tako da u Hrvatskoj prevladavaju tercijarni sektori usluga i turizma koji ne zahtijevaju veliku energetsku potrošnju.

Jačanje energetske suverenosti zahtijeva povećanje domaće privredne proizvodnje, učinkovitije korištenje prirodnih resursa. Nužan je razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije te snažna ulaganja u preradbenu i elektroenergetsku infrastrukturu.

Energetska politika pritom ne bi smjela biti isključivo tržišno pitanje, već dio dugoročne gospodarske i sigurnosne strategije Republike Hrvatske. U vremenu sve izraženijih geopolitičkih napetosti, energetska suverenost postaje jedno od najvažnijih razvojnih pitanja hrvatskog gospodarstva. Država koja može proizvesti i preraditi veći dio vlastite energije nije samo gospodarski otpornija, već i politički neovisnija te konkurentnija u europskom okruženju.

Napomena uredništva:

Razmišljanja i stavovi u ovom tekstu rezultat su autorova pristupa utemeljenog u ideji slobode mišljenja u području energetske politike i diplomatskog iskustva.

Diplomat, PhD Karino Hromin Sturm, Zagreb

ENERGY SOVEREIGNTY OF CROATIA FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

1. Between natural resources, import dependence and strategic decisions

Energy sovereignty today represents one of the key pillars of the economic security of every country. Although Croatia has its own oil and natural gas reserves and significant potential for the production of electricity from renewable sources, our water resources have not been used. There are old plans for hydroelectric power plants, but for some reason no Croatian government has launched these projects. Domestic production is not sufficient to meet overall needs. We are dependent on the import of energy sources, especially oil derivatives, gas and electricity.

Croatia has the economic consequences of import dependence and the great negative impact of the privatization of INA on the energy security of the Republic of Croatia. The saddest thing is that the Prime Ministers of the Republic of Croatia are to blame for this. The first sale of 25% plus 1 share was sold by Ivica Račan to the Hungarian MOL in 2005. Prime Minister Ivo Sanader sold the remaining 24% through funds in 2008 and 2009, so that MOL has 49% of the shares with management rights, for a total of 505 million dollars.

Which is unthinkable in the business world. Prime Minister Sanader was proven at trial that he received a bribe for the sale of INA on such unfavorable terms for Croatia. Instead of the Government taking advantage of the court ruling and annulling the corrupt contract with MOL, the Government of the Republic of Croatia argued with MOL and lost the arbitration dispute in court twice in 2022 and paid 300 million dollars plus interest, and the second time 246 million dollars plus interest. So it turns out that Croatia returned all the invested capital to MOL, which received INA for free. So much for the expertise of our Government and its legal advisors. INA was sold with a 49% stake and management rights for only $505 million, and at that time the value of INA was around $3.5 billion, and with oil fields in Syria and White Nights in Russia, according to experts, at least $4.0 billion, not to mention lost profits.

Then followed MOL’s non-transparent management of INA, and then the former Minister of Economy and CEO, and in 2010 the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of INA Davor Stern, warned the Government that MOL was not respecting the contract and was working against the interests of the Republic of Croatia. But the Government did not react to the warnings. MOL also stopped refining oil at the Sisak refinery in 2018 and closed the refinery completely in 2022. MOL mainly transports our oil to Hungary and Croatia imports derivatives from Hungary. The refinery in Rijeka was closed for a long time for reconstruction and is now operating at half capacity. Practically, MOL from Budapest manages Croatian oil and refining.

Fortunately, the Government of the Republic of Croatia did not think to sell the Adriatic pipeline Omišalj and the Družba-Adria pipeline. MOL was a small company that INA could have bought without any problems and today could be an oil giant in this region. But then Prime Minister Ivica Račan and Finance Minister Slavko Linić ruled, who advocated politics; “sales” and “bankruptcy is the only way out” and thus destroyed our economy. It never occurred to them that the state’s energy products are not sold to foreigners. Energy is a matter of national security.

2.Oil – import dependence.

Croatia produces approximately 500 to 600 thousand tons of crude oil annually, while total consumption exceeds domestic production many times over. Therefore, the largest part of crude oil is imported, mainly through the Omišalj JANAF terminal, from where it is delivered to the Rijeka Refinery. The JANAF terminal is connected to the Russian Druzhba Adria oil pipeline, through which oil is delivered from Russia to Serbia.

Oil terminals in Croatia;

– JANAF Omišalj

– Virje

– Sisak

– Žitnjak – Zagreb

– Zadar

– Ploče

Russia offered to build new oil pipeline capacities of 35 million barrels, then Multiprovod (Omišalj – Slavomski Brod) and the South Stream gas pipeline through Croatia with a total value of 3.5 billion dollars. I worked on the project as a diplomat, and in particular there was a personal request from the Kremlin to talk to the President of the Republic of Croatia and the Government of the Republic of Croatia about the implementation of this investment, there was so much interest in Russia. However, the government of Prime Minister Sanader rejected all the proposals due to the Western policy. Which is economic nonsense, because at that time there were no signs of the Russian-Ukrainian war. And in the end, the war will end one day and we would have oil pipelines, a multi-pipeline and a gas pipeline with a significant energy potential of 50 million barrels that would be a nice source of income as well as transit from European countries to Croatia. But our politicians listen to the Western policy, instead of working for the national interests of Croatia.

As we can see, the entire European Union today has an energy crisis due to the suspension of Russian oil and gas, and their GDP is at zero due to the twice as expensive Western energy sources. Today, oil processing takes place exclusively in the Rijeka Refinery, after the processing in Sisak was shut down. The modernized Rijeka refinery has an installed capacity of about 4.5 million tons per year, which is a large enough capacity to process crude oil for the Croatian market and part of the regional needs.

Despite this, Croatia still imports a significant part of its gasoline and especially diesel fuel. The reasons are market trends, demand structure, availability of certain products and INA’s business policy within the MOL Group, which works for the interests of the Hungarian side. This leaves the domestic market vulnerable to price changes on international markets.

3. Natural gas – greater security thanks to the LNG terminal

Croatia produces approximately 35 to 40% of its own natural gas needs, while the rest is imported. Production ranges from 0.8 to 1.0 billion cubic meters per year, while total consumption is approximately 2.6 to 2.9 billion cubic meters. The biggest change occurred with the commissioning of the LNG terminal on Krk. This gave Croatia the opportunity to purchase liquefied natural gas from various parts of the world, including the USA, Qatar, Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Algeria. This significantly reduced dependence on a single supply route. However, this gas is much more expensive than Russian gas.

When I worked in diplomacy to establish diplomatic relations with Turkmenistan in 1992, I contracted the import of 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year for Croatia, the clearing price was 30% cheaper, and the contract ran for eight years. The logistics of the transport were via the Gazprom gas pipeline, and the buyer in Croatia was the gas monopolist at the time, INA. Paradoxically, Croatia is not completely self-sufficient in gas today, but it has the infrastructure that allows it to import quantities of gas greater than its own consumption and supply neighboring countries that are in great trouble due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian gas.

4.Electricity – almost self-sufficient, but not completely

Croatia produces around 15 TWh of electricity annually, which is 90% of our needs, with production depending on market and hydrological conditions.

Electricity production in Croatia:

– nuclear energy 10.16%,

– oil 3.33%,

– gas 33.58%,

– coal 21.25%,

– solar 10.87%,

– water 6.94%,

– biomass 6.65%,

– other 7.22%.

So around 73% comes from “green” sources. Total domestic consumption is somewhat higher, which is why part of the electricity is regularly imported via the common European market. The most important sources of production are; –

– hydroelectric power plants,

– nuclear power plant Krško (Croatian share),

– thermal power plants,

– wind power plants,

– solar power plants,

– biomass and

– geothermal sources.

In years with a lack of precipitation, the production of hydroelectric power plants drops significantly, which increases the need for imported electricity. This is precisely why the development of solar power plants, battery energy storage and the modernization of the transmission network and the use of geothermal sources represent important prerequisites for long-term energy security.

5. Economic consequences of import dependence

Every ton of imported oil, every cubic meter of imported gas and every megawatt-hour of imported electricity means an outflow of capital from the Croatian economy. When energy prices rise, so do production costs, inflation and household spending on the other hand, increasing domestic production and processing of energy products leaves more added value in Croatia through new jobs, tax revenues, investments and greater resilience of the economy to international shocks.

Conclusion

Croatia is not an energy-rich country. However, it has some of its own oil production. We have exploitation fields, in the Pannonian Basin (Slavonia, Moslavina Podravina) all domestic production is carried out by INA. Some natural gas, electricity 17 large hydroelectric power plants ) with a capacity of more than 10 MW, and 20 small hydroelectric power plants, and about ten thousand wind farms and solar power plants (35,000, 10,000 larger solar power plants are connected to the distribution network).

Croatia is a co-owner of 50% of the Slovenian nuclear power plant and has a developed electricity system. Adriatic oil pipeline (JANAF, 610 km long) with a capacity of 20 million tons per year, Družba – Adria oil pipeline, LNG terminals Omišalj, Sisak, Žitnjak – Zagreb, Virje and Slavonski Brod. It is connected to the international gas pipeline from Hungary, which connects at Donji Miholjac and enables two-way gas transport, and the Hungarians are connected to the Russian gas pipeline, and is now connected to the Turkish gas pipeline that enters Hungary via Bulgaria and Serbia.

In addition, we have significant potential for renewable energy sources. However, Croatia is still not energy sovereign because a significant part of oil, oil derivatives, natural gas and electricity is secured by imports.

One of the reasons for the apparent sufficiency of energy sources in Croatia is that since 1990, we have lost 90% of economic production due to transformation and privatization, so that tertiary sectors of services and tourism that do not require large energy consumption prevail in Croatia.

Strengthening energy sovereignty requires an increase in domestic economic production, more efficient use of natural resources. The development of renewable energy sources and strong investments in processing and electricity infrastructure are necessary.

Energy policy should not be exclusively a market issue, but part of the long-term economic and security strategy of the Republic of Croatia. In a time of increasing geopolitical tensions, energy sovereignty is becoming one of the most important development issues for the Croatian economy. A country that can produce and process a larger part of its own energy is not only more economically resilient, but also more politically independent and competitive in the European environment.

Editorial note:

The thoughts and views in this text are the result of the author’s approach based on the idea of ​​freedom of thought in the field of energy policy and diplomatic experience.