Dr.sc. Jadranka Polović
Sveučilište Libertas , Zagreb

Pet mjeseci od napada Sjedinjenih Država i Izraela na Iran, Hormuški tjesnac postao je ključno geostrateško žarište s izraženim posljedicama za globalno energetsko tržište. Zatvaranje ovog strateškog pomorskog prolaza, kojim je do početka rata prolazila približno petina svjetske trgovine naftom i ukapljenog prirodnog plina (LNG), uzrokovalo je ozbiljne poremećaje u opskrbnim lancima te rezultirala naglim rastom cijena energenata. Riječ je o vitalnoj pomorskoj arteriji kroz koju teče transport energenata iz Perzijskog zaljeva prema Azijsko-pacifičkoj regiji, Europi i Sjevernoj Americi. Tjesnac, koji graniči s obalama Irana, Omana i Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata, predstavlja jedini izlaz iz Perzijskog zaljeva prema otvorenim svjetskim morima, što mu daje status strateške lokacije u globalnoj energetskoj infrastrukturi. Njegova ograničena širina (svega 39 kilometara) dodatno povećava ranjivost na sigurnosne prijetnje što je postalo vidljivo tijekom uzajamnih vojnih napada sukobljenih strana koji su prouzročili znatna oštećenja energetske infrastrukture, uključujući naftovode, rafinerije i skladišne kapacitete. Razmjeri nastale štete upućuju na dugotrajan proces obnove, što produljuje razdoblje nestabilnosti i neizvjesnosti na svjetskom energetskom tržištu.

Dodatni rizik za stabilnost globalnog energetskog tržišta predstavlja prijetnja jemenskih Huta o uvođenju pomorskog embarga protiv Saudijske Arabije. Takve mjere dodatno ugrožavaju sigurnost opskrbe naftom i povećavaju neizvjesnost na međunarodnim energetskim tržištima. Budući da energija predstavlja temeljni proizvodni input za gotovo sve gospodarske sektore, rast cijena energenata izravno povećava troškove proizvodnje, prijevoza i distribucije robe i usluga. Stoga se posljedice energetskih kriza ne ograničavaju isključivo na energetski sektor, već imaju šire makroekonomske učinke koji se odražavaju na inflaciju, gospodarski rast i stabilnost međunarodnih tržišta. U tom kontekstu, postoje snažni argumenti koji upućuju na to da bi trenutna kriza mogla nadmašiti sve prethodne, osobito zbog kombinacije geopolitičkih sukoba, fizičkog uništenja infrastrukture i visoke ovisnosti suvremenog globalnog gospodarstva o stabilnim energetskim tokovima.

Naime, rusko-ukrajinski te bliskoistočni sukob proizvode kumulativni učinak više istodobnih čimbenika koji ograničavaju globalnu opskrbu energentima. Uz sankcije i ograničenja iranskog pomorskog prometa, uzajamne napade na energetsku infrastrukturu u Iranu, u državama Perzijskog zaljeva i Rusiji te kontinuirane napade hutskih pobunjenika na brodski promet u Crvenom moru, dodatni pritisak proizlazi iz postupnog smanjenja raspoloživih zaliha nafte i prirodnog plina. Istodobno djelovanje ovih čimbenika povećava ranjivost globalnog energetskog sustava te produbljuje nestabilnost međunarodnih tržišta.

Posljedice poremećaja na globalnim energetskim tržištima prelijevaju se i na prehrambeni sektor, čime energetska kriza prerasta u širi razvojni i humanitarni izazov. Eskalacija sukoba i geopolitičkih napetosti remeti međunarodne opskrbne lance, trgovinu energentima i dostupnost poljoprivrednih inputa, osobito goriva i gnojiva, što posljedično povećava troškove proizvodnje i cijene hrane na svjetskom tržištu. Prema upozorenjima Međunarodnog fonda za poljoprivredni razvoj (IFAD) i nalazima Ujedinjenih naroda, takvi poremećaji mogu dodatno pogoršati globalnu prehrambenu nesigurnost te povećati broj stanovnika izloženih gladi. Kriza hrane posljedično produbljuje društvene i političke nestabilnosti, stoga energetske i geopolitičke krize proizvode višestruke gospodarske, socijalne i humanitarne posljedice koje nadilaze granice pojedinih država i regija.

Aktualna vojna eskalacija na Bliskom istoku dodatno naglašava ranjivost globalnih opskrbnih lanaca, osobito zbog ugrožavanja ključnih pomorskih pravaca poput Hormuza, Bab al-Mandaba te potencijalno i Sueskog kanala. Iako se posljedice sukoba najčešće promatraju kroz rast cijena energenata, poremećaji u pomorskom prometu imaju znatno šire implikacije za međunarodnu trgovinu i sigurnost opskrbe budući da je globalizacijski logistički model bitno smanjio otpornost globalnih opskrbnih lanaca na geopolitičke šokove koji su posljednjih godina postali realnost. Posljedično, prekidi u prometu kroz strateške pomorske prolaze osobito pogađaju prijevoz poljoprivrednih proizvoda koji zbog kvarljivosti robe i ograničenih logističkih kapaciteta teško podnose dugotrajnije zastoje. Time sigurnosne krize na ključnim pomorskim rutama prerastaju u gospodarski i humanitarni problem globalnih razmjera.

Kao odgovor na poremećaje u pomorskom prometu i blokade ključnih pomorskih pravaca, u političkim i gospodarskim krugovima sve se češće ističe mogućnost preusmjeravanja međunarodne trgovine na alternativne kopnene prometne koridore. Posebna se pozornost pritom usmjerava na Transkaspijsku međunarodnu prometnu rutu (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – TITR), poznatu i kao Srednji koridor (Middle Corridor), koja Kinu povezuje s Europom preko Kazahstana, Kaspijskog jezera, Azerbajdžana, Gruzije i Turske. Stoga se u zapadnim političkim krugovima ovaj prometni pravac često predstavlja kao održiva alternativa tradicionalnim pomorskim rutama te kao potencijalni sigurnosni mehanizam za očuvanje kontinuiteta međunarodne trgovine u razdobljima geopolitičkih kriza. (više vidjeti – A blockade at Hormuz, a crises for all humanity, by W. Julian Korab-Karpowicz, ASIA TIMES, July 19, 2026, dostupno na https://asiatimes.com/2026/07/a-blockade-at-hormuz-a-crisis-for-all-humanity/

Međutim, takva procjena zahtijeva kritičko razmatranje. Iako Srednji koridor može doprinijeti diversifikaciji prometnih pravaca i smanjenju ovisnosti o pojedinim pomorskim uskim grlima, njegovi infrastrukturni i operativni kapaciteti zasad nisu dostatni za preuzimanje opsega tereta koji se u normalnim okolnostima prevozi postojećim pomorskim rutama. Ograničeni željeznički kapaciteti, potreba za višestrukim prekrcajem robe, administrativne prepreke na državnim granicama te logistička koordinacija između većeg broja država smanjuju učinkovitost i stabilnost ovog prometnog pravca. Stoga se Srednji koridor može promatrati kao važan za povećanja otpornosti globalnih opskrbnih lanaca, ali ne i kao potpuna zamjena za ključne pomorske rute u slučaju dugotrajnih ili opsežnih poremećaja međunarodne trgovine.

U okolnostima eskalacije i ozbiljnijih poremećaja pomorskog prometa velik dio međunarodne trgovine preusmjerava se na obilaznu rutu oko afričkog kontinenta preko Rta dobre nade. Iako ovaj pravac omogućava kontinuitet pomorskog prometa i raspolaže znatno većim kapacitetima od kopnenih alternativa, njegova uporaba značajno povećava trajanje i troškove prijevoza. Preusmjeravanje brodova produžava plovidbu za približno 3 500 – 4 000 nautičkih milja, odnosno za oko 10 do 14 dana, uz istodobno povećanje potrošnje goriva i operativnih troškova prijevoza za približno jednu trećinu. Takvi logistički troškovi imaju posebno izražen nepovoljan učinak na robu niske profitne marže, poput žitarica i drugih poljoprivrednih proizvoda, budući da prijevoznici raspolažu ograničenim mogućnostima apsorbiranja dodatnih troškova. Posljedično se bitno povećani troškovi transporta prenose duž cijelog opskrbnog lanca na veleprodajne i maloprodajne cijene hrane. Time poremećaji u pomorskim rutama ne utječu samo na učinkovitost međunarodne trgovine, nego i na rast cijena hrane, sigurnost opskrbe te dostupnost osnovnih prehrambenih proizvoda, osobito u državama koje ovise o uvozu i međunarodnoj humanitarnoj pomoći.

Zanimljivo je i spomenuti da glavni „profiter“ trenutnih geopolitičkih kriza jesu SAD koje su postale najveći svjetski izvoznik nafte, prestigavši ​​dugogodišnju dominaciju Saudijske Arabije i Rusije, koje su tu poziciju držale desetljećima. Ova promjena jača utjecaj američkih energetskih tvrtki na globalnom tržištu budući da sukob između Washingtona i Irana mijenja kartu globalne trgovine energijom. Ovaj razvoj događaja označava veliku promjenu za Sjedinjene Države, koje su desetljećima ovisile o opskrbi naftom s Bliskog istoka. (izvor: US overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia as world’s largest oil exporter, by Lisa Monica, Abyan Rai Fauzan, June 12, 2026 6:30 AM IDN FINANCIALS, dostupno na https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/64698/us-overtaken-saudi-arabia-and-russia-as-worlds-largest-oil-exporter

Zaključno, pomorska sigurnost predstavlja znatno više od pitanja učinkovitosti međunarodne trgovine – ona je jedan od ključnih preduvjeta globalne energetske, prehrambene, ali i humanitarne sigurnosti. Učestali poremećaji na strateškim pomorskim pravcima potvrđuju da postojeći međunarodni mehanizmi (međunarodno pravo, međunarodne organizacije…) nisu opremljeni za krizno upravljanje te su vidljivo nedjelotvorni u zaštiti kritičnih opskrbnih lanaca u uvjetima dva velika geopolitička sukoba. Upravo zbog golemih ekonomskih profita koje proizvodi ratna ekonomija nema interesa da se zaustavi ni jedan od ovih ratova. Diplomacija, kao temeljni instrument međunarodne sigurnosti, praktički je nestala iz javnog diskursa, dok je sve vidljiviji konsenzus oko daljnje militarizacije međunarodnih odnosa. Zbog čega se rat sve više tretira kao prihvatljiv, pa čak i poželjan instrument ostvarivanja geopolitičkih ciljeva.

Ipak, rasprava o ad hoc, a zatim i dugoročnim institucionalnim rješenjima usmjerenim na povećanje otpornosti globalnih logističkih sustava je neophodna. Kako se navodi u gore spomenutom tekstu, jedna od mogućih mjera jest uspostava međunarodno priznatih i pravno zaštićenih demilitariziranih tranzitnih zona (Plavih koridora) za civilne trgovačke brodove koji prevoze hranu i druge osnovne potrepštine kroz područja zahvaćena sukobima. Takav bi pristup pridonio odvajanju humanitarne i prehrambene opskrbe od geopolitičkih i vojnih interesa te osnažio primjenu međunarodnog humanitarnog prava u zaštiti civilnog pomorskog prometa.

U konačnici, aktualna zbivanja na Bliskom istoku jasno nam ukazuju na činjenicu da dugoročna stabilnost međunarodnog sustava ne može počivati isključivo na gospodarskoj učinkovitosti globalnih opskrbnih lanaca, ali ni na sirovoj demonstraciji vojne moći. Održiva sigurnost zahtijeva otpornije logističke mreže, učinkovitiju međunarodnu suradnju i jačanje pravnih mehanizama koji će osigurati kontinuitet opskrbe ključnim resursima čak i u uvjetima oružanih sukoba. Ako je to uopće još uvijek moguće!

Dr. Jadranka Polović
Libertas University, Zagreb

Geopolitics of Energy. Energy as a Source of Economic and Political Power

Five months after the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a key geostrategic hotspot with significant consequences for the global energy market. The closure of this strategic maritime chokepoint, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passed before the outbreak of the war, has caused severe disruptions to global supply chains and resulted in a sharp increase in energy prices. It is a vital maritime artery through which energy resources from the Persian Gulf are transported to the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and North America. Bordered by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, the Strait constitutes the only maritime outlet from the Persian Gulf to the open seas, giving it a strategically indispensable role within the global energy infrastructure. Its limited width—only 39 kilometers—further increases its vulnerability to security threats, a fact that became evident during the reciprocal military attacks between the warring parties, which caused extensive damage to energy infrastructure, including oil pipelines, refineries, and storage facilities. The scale of the destruction indicates that reconstruction will be a long-term process, prolonging the period of instability and uncertainty in the global energy market.

An additional risk to the stability of the global energy market is posed by the threat of the Yemeni Houthis to impose a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. Such measures further jeopardize the security of oil supplies and increase uncertainty in international energy markets. Since energy is a fundamental input for virtually all sectors of the economy, rising energy prices directly increase the costs of production, transportation, and the distribution of goods and services. Consequently, the effects of energy crises are not confined to the energy sector alone but have broader macroeconomic implications, affecting inflation, economic growth, and the stability of international markets. In this context, there are compelling reasons to believe that the current crisis could surpass all previous ones, particularly due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts, the physical destruction of critical infrastructure, and the high dependence of the modern global economy on stable energy flows.

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the conflict in the Middle East together produce a cumulative effect through multiple simultaneous factors that constrain the global supply of energy resources. In addition to sanctions and restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic, reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran, the Persian Gulf states, and Russia, as well as the continued attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, further pressure stems from the gradual depletion of available oil and natural gas reserves. The combined impact of these factors increases the vulnerability of the global energy system and further exacerbates instability in international energy markets.

The consequences of disruptions in global energy markets also spill over into the food sector, transforming the energy crisis into a broader developmental and humanitarian challenge. The escalation of armed conflicts and geopolitical tensions disrupts international supply chains, energy trade, and the availability of key agricultural inputs, particularly fuel and fertilizers, thereby increasing production costs and driving up global food prices. According to warnings issued by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and findings published by the United Nations, such disruptions may further exacerbate global food insecurity and increase the number of people exposed to hunger. The resulting food crisis, in turn, deepens social and political instability. Consequently, energy and geopolitical crises generate far-reaching economic, social, and humanitarian consequences that extend well beyond the borders of individual states and regions.

The current military escalation in the Middle East further highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains, particularly due to the threats facing key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and potentially the Suez Canal. Although the consequences of the conflict are most commonly viewed through the lens of rising energy prices, disruptions to maritime transport have far broader implications for international trade and supply security. This is because the globalization-driven logistics model has significantly reduced the resilience of global supply chains to geopolitical shocks, which have become an increasingly frequent reality in recent years. Consequently, disruptions to traffic through these strategic maritime chokepoints have a particularly severe impact on the transportation of agricultural products, as the perishable nature of such goods and limited logistical capacity make them especially vulnerable to prolonged delays. As a result, security crises affecting key maritime routes evolve into economic and humanitarian challenges of global significance.

In response to disruptions in maritime transport and the blockade of key sea routes, policymakers and business leaders have increasingly emphasized the potential of redirecting international trade to alternative overland transport corridors. Particular attention has been given to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, which connects China with Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. Consequently, this transport corridor is frequently presented in Western policy circles as a viable alternative to traditional maritime routes and as a potential security mechanism for preserving the continuity of international trade during periods of geopolitical crisis. (For more details see – A blockade at Hormuz, a crises for all humanity, by W. Julian Korab-Karpowicz, ASIA TIMES, July 19, 2026, dostupno na https://asiatimes.com/2026/07/a-blockade-at-hormuz-a-crisis-for-all-humanity/

However, such an assessment requires critical examination. Although the Middle Corridor can contribute to the diversification of transport routes and reduce dependence on specific maritime chokepoints, its current infrastructure and operational capacity are insufficient to accommodate the volume of cargo that is normally transported via existing sea routes. Limited railway capacity, the need for multiple cargo transshipments, administrative barriers at international borders, and the logistical coordination required among several countries all reduce the efficiency and reliability of this transport corridor. Therefore, while the Middle Corridor can be regarded as an important instrument for enhancing the resilience of global supply chains, it cannot yet serve as a full substitute for key maritime routes in the event of prolonged or large-scale disruptions to international trade.

In the event of further escalation and more severe disruptions to maritime transport, a substantial share of international trade is redirected via the alternative route around the African continent through the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route ensures the continuity of maritime shipping and offers significantly greater capacity than overland alternatives, its use substantially increases both transit times and transportation costs. Diverting vessels extends voyages by approximately 3,500–4,000 nautical miles, or roughly 10 to 14 days, while simultaneously increasing fuel consumption and operational shipping costs by approximately one-third. These additional logistical costs have a particularly adverse impact on low-margin commodities such as grains and other agricultural products, as carriers have only limited capacity to absorb the higher expenses. Consequently, the significantly increased transportation costs are passed along the entire supply chain, ultimately raising wholesale and retail food prices. As a result, disruptions to maritime routes affect not only the efficiency of international trade but also food prices, supply security, and the availability of essential food products, particularly in countries that depend heavily on imports and international humanitarian assistance.

It is also noteworthy that one of the principal beneficiaries of the current geopolitical crises is the United States, which has become the world’s largest oil exporter, surpassing the long-standing dominance of Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which held this position for decades. This shift has strengthened the influence of American energy companies in the global market, as the conflict between Washington and Iran continues to reshape the global energy trade. This development marks a profound transformation for the United States, which for decades relied heavily on oil supplies from the Middle East. (Source: US overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia as world’s largest oil exporter, by Lisa Monica, Abyan Rai Fauzan, June 12, 2026 6:30 AM IDN FINANCIALS, dostupno na https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/64698/us-overtaken-saudi-arabia-and-russia-as-worlds-largest-oil-exporter

In conclusion, maritime security represents far more than a matter of ensuring the efficiency of international trade—it is one of the fundamental prerequisites for global energy, food, and humanitarian security. The growing frequency of disruptions along strategic maritime routes demonstrates that existing international mechanisms—including international law and international organizations—are inadequately equipped for effective crisis management and have proven largely ineffective in safeguarding critical supply chains amid two major geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, the enormous economic profits generated by the wartime economy have reduced incentives to bring either of these conflicts to an end. Diplomacy, once regarded as the primary instrument of international security, has virtually disappeared from public discourse, while an increasingly broad consensus appears to favor the further militarization of international relations. As a result, war is increasingly being treated as an acceptable—and, in some cases, even desirable—instrument for the pursuit of geopolitical objectives

Nevertheless, a discussion of both ad hoc and long-term institutional solutions aimed at enhancing the resilience of global logistics systems is indispensable. As noted in the previously mentioned article, one possible measure is the establishment of internationally recognized and legally protected demilitarized transit zones (“Blue Corridors”) for civilian merchant vessels transporting food and other essential goods through conflict-affected areas. Such an approach would help separate humanitarian and food supply operations from geopolitical and military interests while strengthening the application of international humanitarian law in protecting civilian maritime traffic.

Ultimately, the current developments in the Middle East clearly demonstrate that the long-term stability of the international system cannot rest solely on the economic efficiency of global supply chains, nor on the sheer demonstration of military power. Sustainable security requires more resilient logistics networks, more effective international cooperation, and stronger legal mechanisms capable of ensuring the uninterrupted supply of critical resources even under conditions of armed conflict. If that is still possible at all!