Izv. prof. dr. sc. Vlaho Kovačević
Filozofski fakultet Sveučilišta u Splitu
Katedra za sociologiju

Može li država u 21. stoljeću biti politički suverena ako nije energetski suverena? Donedavno bi se na to pitanje odgovaralo prvenstveno ekonomskim argumentima. Danas je odgovor mnogo složeniji. Ratovi, geopolitičke napetosti, klimatske promjene i poremećaji globalnih opskrbnih lanaca pokazali su da energija više nije samo tržišna roba nego strateški resurs koji određuje gospodarsku otpornost, političku stabilnost i nacionalnu sigurnost.

Energetska kriza posljednjih godina promijenila je način na koji promatramo razvoj. Desetljećima je prevladavala logika globalne učinkovitosti: energija se nabavlja ondje gdje je najjeftinija, proizvodnja se seli ondje gdje su troškovi niži, a međunarodna trgovina jamči stabilnost opskrbe. Međutim, suvremene krize pokazale su koliko je takav model ranjiv. Dovoljna je jedna geopolitička nestabilnost ili prekid ključnog opskrbnog pravca da posljedice osjete kućanstva, gospodarstvo i javne financije diljem svijeta.

Njemački sociolog Ulrich Beck još je prije više od dvadeset godina upozorio da ulazimo u globalno društvo rizika (World Risk Society). Prema Becku, moderna društva više ne proizvode samo bogatstvo i tehnološki napredak nego i nove rizike koji prelaze državne granice i koje više nije moguće u potpunosti kontrolirati (Beck, 1992; 1999). Energetska sigurnost danas je jedan od najočitijih primjera takvih globalnih rizika. Lokalni sukob može izazvati poremećaje na svjetskim energetskim tržištima, potaknuti inflaciju i usporiti gospodarski rast tisućama kilometara dalje.

U takvom svijetu mijenja se i značenje energetske suverenosti. Ona ne znači zatvaranje nacionalnih gospodarstava niti odustajanje od međunarodne suradnje. Naprotiv, znači sposobnost države da kroz diverzifikaciju izvora energije, razvoj domaćih proizvodnih kapaciteta, ulaganje u obnovljive izvore i modernu infrastrukturu očuva stabilnost čak i u razdobljima globalnih poremećaja. Drugim riječima, naglasak se pomiče s maksimalne učinkovitosti na dugoročnu otpornost.

Ovu promjenu moguće je razumjeti i kroz teoriju strukturacije Anthonyja Giddensa. Društvene strukture nisu nešto što postoji izvan ljudi; one se svakodnevno stvaraju i održavaju političkim odlukama, gospodarskim strategijama i društvenim praksama (Giddens, 1984). Energetska politika stoga nije samo tehničko pitanje. Ona odražava vrijednosti jednog društva, njegov odnos prema razvoju, sigurnosti i odgovornosti prema budućim generacijama.

Beck pritom upozorava na još jedan važan fenomen – organiziranu neodgovornost. Globalni sustavi proizvode posljedice, ali odgovornost ostaje raspršena između država, međunarodnih organizacija, tržišta i velikih korporacija. Kada dođe do energetske krize, posljedice snose građani i gospodarstvo, dok je odgovornost često teško jasno odrediti. Upravo zato energetska sigurnost više ne može biti prepuštena isključivo tržišnim mehanizmima, nego zahtijeva aktivnu ulogu države, regulatornih institucija, znanstvene zajednice i međunarodne suradnje.

Za Hrvatsku ovo pitanje ima posebnu težinu. Kao malo otvoreno gospodarstvo i članica Europske unije, Hrvatska sudjeluje u zajedničkom europskom energetskom prostoru, ali istodobno mora razvijati vlastite kapacitete otpornosti. LNG terminal na Krku, razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije, modernizacija elektroenergetske mreže i ulaganja u energetsku učinkovitost predstavljaju više od infrastrukturnih projekata – oni postaju elementi dugoročne društvene sigurnosti i gospodarske konkurentnosti.

Energetska suverenost stoga nije samo pitanje proizvodnje električne energije ili opskrbe plinom. Ona postaje pokazatelj sposobnosti društva da upravlja rizicima, planira dugoročno i odgovorno oblikuje vlastiti razvoj. Upravo je to temeljna poruka Beckove teorije društva rizika: sigurnost u 21. stoljeću više nije stanje koje se podrazumijeva, nego sposobnost društva da prepozna nove prijetnje, razvije otpornost i djeluje prije nego što kriza postane katastrofa.

U vremenu kada se globalna sigurnost sve više isprepliće s energetskom sigurnošću, energetska suverenost postaje jedno od ključnih obilježja uspješnih i otpornih društava. Nije riječ o povratku izolaciji, nego o izgradnji sustava koji će, unatoč globalnim neizvjesnostima, moći osigurati stabilnost gospodarstva, zaštitu građana i održivi razvoj.

Literatura

Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.

Beck, U. (1999). World Risk Society. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Giddens, A. (1984). The Constitution of Society. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Vlaho Kovačević, PhD
Associate Professor.University of Split
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences

Energy sovereignty in a global risk society: why energy is no longer just a market issue?

Can a state in the 21st century be politically sovereign if it is not energy sovereign? Until recently, this question would have been answered primarily with economic arguments. Today, the answer is much more complex. Wars, geopolitical tensions, climate change and disruptions in global supply chains have shown that energy is no longer just a market commodity but a strategic resource that determines economic resilience, political stability and national security.

The energy crisis of recent years has changed the way we look at development. For decades, the logic of global efficiency has prevailed: energy is sourced where it is cheapest, production is moved to where costs are lower, and international trade guarantees stability of supply. However, modern crises have shown how vulnerable such a model is. All it takes is one geopolitical instability or disruption of a key supply route for the consequences to be felt by households, economies and public finances around the world.

More than twenty years ago, the German sociologist Ulrich Beck warned that we are entering a global risk society (World Risk Society). According to Beck, modern societies no longer produce only wealth and technological progress, but also new risks that cross national borders and that can no longer be fully controlled (Beck, 1992; 1999). Energy security is today one of the most obvious examples of such global risks. A local conflict can cause disruptions in world energy markets, trigger inflation and slow economic growth thousands of kilometers away.

In such a world, the meaning of energy sovereignty is also changing. It does not mean the closure of national economies or giving up on international cooperation. On the contrary, it means the ability of a state to maintain stability even in times of global disruption through the diversification of energy sources, the development of domestic production capacities, investment in renewable sources and modern infrastructure. In other words, the emphasis is shifting from maximum efficiency to long-term resilience.

This change can also be understood through Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration. Social structures are not something that exists outside of people; they are created and maintained daily by political decisions, economic strategies and social practices (Giddens, 1984). Energy policy is therefore not just a technical issue. It reflects the values ​​of a society, its attitude towards development, security and responsibility towards future generations.

Beck warns of another important phenomenon – organised irresponsibility. Global systems produce consequences, but responsibility remains dispersed between states, international organisations, markets and large corporations. When an energy crisis occurs, the consequences are borne by citizens and the economy, while responsibility is often difficult to clearly determine. This is precisely why energy security can no longer be left exclusively to market mechanisms, but requires the active role of the state, regulatory institutions, the scientific community and international cooperation.

For Croatia, this issue is of particular importance. As a small open economy and a member of the European Union, Croatia participates in the common European energy space, but at the same time must develop its own resilience capacities. The LNG terminal on Krk, the development of renewable energy sources, the modernisation of the electricity grid and investments in energy efficiency represent more than infrastructure projects – they become elements of long-term social security and economic competitiveness.

Energy sovereignty is therefore not only a matter of electricity production or gas supply. It becomes an indicator of society’s ability to manage risks, plan long-term and shape its own development responsibly. This is precisely the fundamental message of Beck’s theory of risk society: security in the 21st century is no longer a condition that is taken for granted, but the ability of society to recognize new threats, develop resilience and act before a crisis becomes a disaster.

At a time when global security is increasingly intertwined with energy security, energy sovereignty is becoming one of the key features of successful and resilient societies. It is not about a return to isolation, but about building a system that, despite global uncertainties, will be able to ensure the stability of the economy, protection of citizens and sustainable development.

Literature

Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage.

Beck, U. (1999). World Risk Society. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Giddens, A. (1984). The Constitution of Society. Cambridge: Polity Press