Dr.sc. Ivan Güttler, glavni ravnatelj

Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ)

Kad govorimo o suverenosti, najčešće mislimo na granice, tržišta i geopolitiku. Ipak, energija i hrana ovise o faktorima koje ne poznaju granice, poput vremena, klime i vode. Kiša koja puni hidroelektrane i natapa polja ne zaustavlja se na državnim granicama, baš kao što ni toplinski val ne čeka na carini. Energetski i prehrambeni sustavi povezani su s klimom na dva načina. S jedne strane, oni znatno pridonose emisijama stakleničkih plinova, a s druge su snažno izloženi posljedicama zagrijavanja. Zato danas energetska i prehrambena suverenost ovise i o pouzdanim informacijama o vremenu, klimi i vodi, jer od tih podataka zavise proizvodnja energije, poljoprivreda i upravljanje vodnim resursima.

Globalne emisije i energetska transformacija

Globalna slika ima dvije strane. Prema procjeni Global Carbon Budgeta, svijet je 2025. ispustio oko 42 milijarde tona CO₂, od čega oko 38 milijardi iz fosilnih goriva i industrijskih procesa. Dio emitiranog ugljikova dioksida ostaje u atmosferi stoljećima, pa današnje emisije imaju dugotrajne posljedice. Koliko će se planet još zagrijati ovisi o tome koliko ćemo brzo smanjiti emisije i dosegnuti neto nulte emisije CO₂, uz snažno smanjenje ostalih stakleničkih plinova.

Istodobno, energetski sustav ubrzano se mijenja. U prvoj polovici 2025. obnovljivi izvori zajedno, uključujući hidroenergiju, prvi su put proizveli više električne energije od ugljena na svjetskoj razini. Prema procjeni Međunarodne agencije za energiju, ulaganja u čiste energetske tehnologije i infrastrukturu u 2025. bila su približno dvostruko veća od ulaganja u fosilna goriva. To uključuje i ulaganja u mreže, pohranu energije i energetsku učinkovitost. Tom su napretku pridonijeli inženjeri i inovatori, ali i masovnija proizvodnja te tržišna konkurencija. Zahvaljujući njima, proizvodnja električne energije iz vjetra i Sunca danas je znatno jeftinija nego prije petnaestak godina.

Napredak se vidi i u ranom upozoravanju na opasne vremenske pojave. Prema izvješću WMO-a i UNDRR-a za 2025., oko 60 posto država prijavilo je postojanje sustava ranog upozoravanja na više vrsta opasnosti. Ipak, velike razlike u dostupnosti i učinkovitosti tih sustava i dalje postoje. Zato uz razvoj prognoza treba osigurati da upozorenja pravodobno stignu do ljudi i pomognu im donijeti odluke kojima štite živote, imovinu i proizvodnju hrane.

Europa: suradnja kao dio suverenosti

Europa ima posebno mjesto u ovoj priči. To je kontinent koji se najbrže zagrijava, a Sredozemlje, kojem pripada i velik dio Hrvatske, posebno je osjetljivo na sušu i toplinske valove. Energetska kriza 2022. dodatno nas je podsjetila da ovisnost o uvoznim fosilnim gorivima nije samo klimatski, nego i sigurnosni problem. Zbog toga je svaka domaća vjetroelektrana i solarna elektrana istodobno klimatska mjera i mjera suverenosti. Europa je, međutim, naučila i da suverenost ne znači samodostatnost. Nijedna nacionalna služba ne bi sama mogla razviti globalne prognoze Europskog centra za srednjoročne prognoze vremena (ECMWF) ili satelite Europske organizacije  za korištenje meteoroloških satelita (EUMETSAT),  a zajedno ih koristimo svi. Primjerice, satelit MTG-S1 lansiran 2025. omogućuje preciznije praćenje olujnih nevremena, uključujući i ona nad Hrvatskom. Istodobno ECMWF uz klasične modele u operativnu primjenu uvodi i prognoze temeljene na umjetnoj inteligenciji, a njegove globalne prognoze služe kao rubni uvjeti za nacionalni model ALADIN koji koristi Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ). Tako europska suradnja izravno jača nacionalnu sposobnost.

Hrvatska: voda povezuje energiju i hranu

Mjerenja jasno pokazuju da se klima u Hrvatskoj mijenja. Neki dijelovi zemlje zagrijavaju se za oko 0,3 °C po desetljeću, a razina Jadranskog mora raste. Klimatske projekcije za jug Hrvatske upućuju na sušnija ljeta, i to upravo u razdoblju kada je potreba za vodom najveća.

Ipak, polazna točka nije loša. Imamo hidroenergiju, vjetroelektrane, više od 1 GW instalirane snage sunčanih elektrana i šume čiji je neto ponor, prema nacionalnom inventaru iz 2025., u 2023. iznosio oko 5,8 milijuna tona CO₂. Solarnih panela na krovovima, parkiralištima i otvorenim površinama sve je više, unatoč administrativnim i tehničkim preprekama.

Problem je što se hidroelektrane, navodnjavanje i vodoopskrba sve češće natječu za istu vodu, a njezinu je dostupnost sve teže predvidjeti. Sušna ljeta smanjuju proizvodnju hidroelektrana i povećavaju potrebu za navodnjavanjem, a toplinski valovi dodatno podižu potrošnju električne energije za hlađenje. Kada se ti pritisci poklope, energetska i prehrambena sigurnost prestaju biti odvojena pitanja.

Granice znanja i predvidljivosti

Ovdje dolazimo do granica našeg znanja. Zašto se klima mijenja, znamo sigurno: utjecaj stakleničkih plinova potvrđuju i fizika i dugotrajna mjerenja. Znamo i da su toplinski valovi sve češći, jake kiše sve intenzivnije, a razina mora raste. Puno manje znamo o tome kako će se oborine mijenjati na manjim područjima. A upravo je to najvažnije poljoprivredniku ili upravitelju akumulacije, jer on odlučuje za svoje polje ili svoj sliv, a ne za cijelu Europu. Ponašanje oluja i tuče u toplijoj klimi tek počinjemo razumijevati. Još uvijek ne znamo koliko će biti istovremenih ekstrema, poput suše i toplinskog vala, niti koliko unaprijed ih možemo predvidjeti. Ipak, najveća nepoznanica nije vezana uz fiziku, već uz ljude: koliko brzo će svijet smanjiti emisije. O tome ovisi hoćemo li se prilagođavati svijetu toplijem za dva ili za tri ili više stupnjeva.

Prilagodba počinje dobrom informacijom

Upravo zato što ne znamo hoće li svijet emisije smanjiti brzo, sporo ili nikako, prilagodba postaje sve važnija. A ona počinje dobrom vremenskom i klimatskom informacijom.

Kasni proljetni mraz nakon toplog početka proljeća može u jednoj noći uništiti urod u voćnjaku. Poljoprivrednik koji na vrijeme dobije upozorenje ima vremena zaštititi nasad, a upozorenja na sušu i toplinski stres pomažu mu planirati sjetvu i navodnjavanje. Hidrološke prognoze protoka omogućuju upraviteljima akumulacija da usklade proizvodnju struje, navodnjavanje i obranu od poplava. Operatoru elektroenergetskog sustava prognoze vjetra i Sunčeva zračenja govore koliku proizvodnju iz obnovljivih izvora može očekivati, pa ih lakše uključuje u mrežu.

Da bi takve informacije bile dostupne svima, potrebni su otvoreni podaci, poput mjerenja s automatskih postaja, plutača i radara DHMZ-a, ali i novi prognostički alati za sušu, toplinske valove i požare.

Konačno, novac treba ulagati u rješenja sa znanstvenom podlogom, poput protugradnih mreža, osiguranja i otpornijih kultura, a ne u metode čija učinkovitost nije dokazana. Tuča ionako nije jedina prijetnja: poljoprivrednike sve češće pogađaju i suša, mraz, poplave i olujni vjetar, pa rješenja moraju štititi od svih tih rizika, a ne samo od jednog.

Bez smanjenja emisija nema dugoročne otpornosti

Prilagodba ipak ima granice. Bez ublažavanja, odnosno smanjenja emisija, nećemo daleko stići.

U energetici to znači prelazak s fosilnih goriva na obnovljive izvore, elektrifikaciju prometa i grijanja te veću energetsku učinkovitost. Dobit je dvostruka: manje emisija i čišći zrak. I tu meteorologija ima konkretnu ulogu, jer dugi nizovi mjerenja vjetra i Sunčeva zračenja pomažu odabrati najbolje lokacije za elektrane i procijeniti koliko će proizvoditi.

Ni poljoprivreda nije iznimka. Kada se gnojidba prilagodi vremenskim uvjetima, biljke iskoriste dušik prije nego što ga kiša ispere, pa su manji i gubici i emisije didušikova oksida. Agrosolarni sustavi proizvode električnu energiju, a usjevima istodobno pružaju hlad i smanjuju isparavanje.

Posebnu ulogu imaju šume i tlo kao prirodni ponori ugljika. Hrvatske šume danas vežu velik dio naših emisija, ali sve češće suše i požari mogu oslabiti tu sposobnost. Zato njihova zaštita služi dvjema svrhama: i ublažavanju i prilagodbi.

Suverenost kao otpornost

Suverenost u 21. stoljeću ne znači zatvaranje, nego otpornost. To podrazumijeva domaću proizvodnju energije i hrane koja se temelji na pouzdanim mjerenjima, prognozama i upozorenjima, a istovremeno je povezana s europskom i svjetskom suradnjom. Ovakva otpornost ne stvara se brzo, nego zahtijeva ulaganje u mjerne postaje, računalnu opremu, modele i, najvažnije, u ljude koji s njima rade. Ulaganje u meteorološku i hidrološku službu zato je ulaganje u obje vrste suverenosti.

Dr. Ivan Güttler, Director General

State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ)

Resilience is the new sovereignty: energy and food in a changing climate

When we talk about sovereignty, we usually think of borders, markets and geopolitics. However, energy and food depend on factors that know no borders, such as weather, climate and water. The rain that fills hydroelectric power plants and irrigates fields does not stop at national borders, just as a heat wave does not wait at customs. Energy and food systems are linked to the climate in two ways. On the one hand, they contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and on the other, they are strongly exposed to the consequences of warming. That is why today energy and food sovereignty also depend on reliable information about weather, climate and water, because energy production, agriculture and water resource management depend on this data.

Global emissions and energy transformation

The global picture is two-sided. According to the Global Carbon Budget , the world emitted about 42 billion tons of CO₂ in 2025, of which about 38 billion from fossil fuels and industrial processes. Some of the carbon dioxide emitted remains in the atmosphere for centuries, so today’s emissions have long-term consequences. How much more the planet warms depends on how quickly we reduce emissions and reach net zero CO₂ emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gases.

At the same time, the energy system is changing rapidly. In the first half of 2025 , renewables combined, including hydropower, produced more electricity than coal globally for the first time. According to the International Energy Agency , investment in clean energy technologies and infrastructure in 2025 was approximately twice as high as investment in fossil fuels. This includes investments in networks, energy storage and energy efficiency. This progress has been driven by engineers and innovators, as well as by mass production and market competition. Thanks to them, the production of electricity from wind and solar is now significantly cheaper than it was fifteen years ago.

Progress is also being made in early warning of severe weather events. According to the WMO- UNDRR 2025 report, around 60 percent of countries reported having early warning systems for multiple hazards. However, large differences in the availability and effectiveness of these systems persist. Therefore, in addition to developing forecasts, it is necessary to ensure that warnings reach people in a timely manner and help them make decisions that protect lives, property and food production.

Europe: cooperation as part of sovereignty

Europe has a special place in this story. It is the continent that is warming the fastest, and the Mediterranean, to which a large part of Croatia belongs, is particularly vulnerable to drought and heat waves. The 2022 energy crisis further reminded us that dependence on imported fossil fuels is not only a climate problem, but also a security problem. This is why every domestic wind farm and solar power plant is both a climate measure and a measure of sovereignty. Europe has also learned, however, that sovereignty does not mean self-sufficiency. No national service could develop the global forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or the satellites of the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) on its own, and together we all use them. For example, the MTG-S1 satellite launched in 2025 allows for more precise monitoring of storms, including those over Croatia. At the same time, ECMWF is introducing artificial intelligence-based forecasts into operational use in addition to classical models, and its global forecasts serve as boundary conditions for the national ALADIN model used by the State Hydrometeorological Service (DHMZ). Thus, European cooperation directly strengthens national capabilities.

Croatia: water connects energy and food

Measurements clearly show that the climate in Croatia is changing. Some parts of the country are warming by about 0.3 °C per decade, and the level of the Adriatic Sea is rising. Climate projections for southern Croatia point to drier summers, precisely at the time when the need for water is greatest.

Still, the starting point is not bad. We have hydropower, wind farms, more than 1 GW of installed solar power capacity, and forests whose net sink, according to the national inventory from 2025 , was about 5.8 million tons of CO₂ in 2023. Solar panels on roofs, parking lots, and open spaces are increasingly common, despite administrative and technical obstacles.

The problem is that hydroelectric power plants, irrigation and water supply are increasingly competing for the same water, and its availability is increasingly difficult to predict. Dry summers reduce hydroelectric power production and increase the need for irrigation, and heat waves further increase electricity consumption for cooling. When these pressures coincide, energy and food security cease to be separate issues.

The limits of knowledge and predictability

Here we reach the limits of our knowledge. Why the climate is changing, we know for sure: the influence of greenhouse gases is confirmed by both physics and long-term measurements. We also know that heat waves are becoming more frequent, heavy rains are becoming more intense, and sea levels are rising. We know much less about how precipitation will change in smaller areas. And this is precisely what is most important to a farmer or reservoir manager, because he makes decisions for his field or his basin, not for the whole of Europe. We are only just beginning to understand the behavior of storms and hail in a warmer climate. We still do not know how many simultaneous extremes, such as drought and heat waves, there will be, nor how far in advance we can predict them. However, the biggest unknown is not related to physics, but to humans: how quickly the world will reduce emissions. It depends on whether we adapt to a world two degrees warmer or three degrees or more.

Adaptation starts with good information

Precisely because we don’t know whether the world will reduce emissions quickly, slowly, or not at all, adaptation is becoming increasingly important. And it starts with good weather and climate information.

A late spring frost after a warm start to spring can destroy an orchard in one night. A farmer who receives a timely warning has time to protect his crop, and drought and heat stress warnings help him plan planting and irrigation. Hydrological flow forecasts allow reservoir managers to coordinate power generation, irrigation, and flood protection. Wind and solar radiation forecasts tell the power system operator how much renewable energy he can expect, making it easier to integrate them into the grid.

To make such information accessible to everyone, open data is needed, such as measurements from automatic stations, buoys and radars of the DHMZ, as well as new forecasting tools for drought, heat waves and fires.

Finally, money should be invested in science-based solutions, such as anti-hail nets, insurance and more resilient crops, and not in methods whose effectiveness has not been proven. Hail is not the only threat anyway: farmers are increasingly affected by drought, frost, floods and stormy winds, so solutions must protect against all these risks, not just one.

Without emissions reductions, there is no long-term resilience.

Adaptation has its limits, however. Without mitigation, or emission reductions, we won’t get very far.

In energy, this means switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources, electrification of transport and heating, and greater energy efficiency. The benefit is twofold: fewer emissions and cleaner air. Here too, meteorology has a specific role, because long series of wind and solar radiation measurements help to choose the best locations for power plants and estimate how much they will produce.

Agriculture is no exception. When fertilization is adjusted to weather conditions, plants use nitrogen before it is washed away by rain, reducing losses and nitrous oxide emissions. Agrosolar systems produce electricity while providing shade to crops and reducing evaporation.

Forests and soil play a special role as natural carbon sinks. Croatian forests currently sequester a large portion of our emissions, but increasingly frequent droughts and fires can weaken this capacity. Therefore, their protection serves two purposes: both mitigation and adaptation.

Sovereignty as resilience

Sovereignty in the 21st century does not mean closure, but resilience. This implies domestic energy and food production based on reliable measurements, forecasts and warnings, while at the same time being linked to European and global cooperation. Such resilience does not come quickly, but requires investment in measuring stations, computer equipment, models and, most importantly, in the people who work with them. Investing in meteorological and hydrological services is therefore an investment in both types of sovereignty.